National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Versions: 1 2
000
AXUS75 KGJT 291827
DGTGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-
111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-291730-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1225 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

...DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND EAST CENTRAL
UTAH...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. LITTLE
CHANGE DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.

FOR THE FIRST 28 DAYS OF MARCH MOST OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UINTA BASIN AND THE
EXTREME UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THE SNOW PACK CONTINUES TO
INCREASE SLOWLY WHICH IS BETTER THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON HAD ALREADY STOPPED.

THE END OF JANUARY ENDED WITH A STRONG VERY MOIST WINTER STORM
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM PRODUCED A RANGE OF 5 TO 18 PERCENT INCREASE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL. FEBRUARY STARTED DRY THE
FIRST WEEK BEFORE A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PERIODICALLY MOVED OVER
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT ENOUGH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE THE DROUGHT ONE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MONTH. THE REST OF THE REGION
RECEIVED ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP THE DROUGHT CONSTANT.

JANUARY STARTED THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A STORM AND THEN
BECAME DRY THE THE REST OF THE FIRST WEEK. THE END OF THE SECOND
WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEKEND HAD A STORM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS SAW THE LEAST SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
REST OF THE MONTH SO FAR HAS BEEN EITHER DRY OR WELL BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

DECEMBER STARTED OUT DRIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE PATTERN SOON CHANGED
FROM RIDGE DOMINATED IN LATE NOVEMBER AND EARLY DECEMBER TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH MOST OF THE MONTH. FOR MOST SITES
PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. DUE TO THE
LONG LASTING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PRECIPITATION WAS HELPFUL BUT DID
NOT CHANGE DROUGHT CATEGORIES.

PRECIPITATION AT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR 2012.

NOVEMBER WAS FAIRLY DRY WITH ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO KEEP THE
DROUGHT STEADY FOR MOST OF THE MONTH. THE LAST PART OF THE MONTH WAS
DRY AND DROUGHT CATEGORIES DID START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WEST MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. SNOWFALL IN
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS PUSHED THE DROUGHT CATEGORY DOWN OVER
WESTERN DAGGETT COUNTY.

THIS PERSISTENT DROUGHT SITUATION IS LARGELY DUE TO THE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL SNOWPACK FROM LAST WINTER SEASON...AS WELL AS A VERY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FIRST PART OF THE 2012 SUMMER. THE DRY TREND
CONTINUED FOR SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER WITH MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING RAINFALL BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

EXTREME DROUGHT D3 CONTINUES OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND  FAR
NORTH WESTERN COLORADO. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE D3 DROUGHT
ARE MOFFAT...PITKIN...EAGLE AND PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...ROUTT...GUNNISON...RIO BLANCO...GARFIELD.  D2 SEVERE
DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH.  COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE D2 DROUGHT ARE
MESA AND PORTIONS OF DELTA...MONTROSE...OURAY...GUNNISON...RIO
BLANCO...GARFIELD...SAN MIGUEL AND HINSDALE. UTAH COUNTIES IN D2
INCLUDE GRAND...UINTAH...DAGGET AND A PORTION OF SAN JUAN. MODERATE
DROUGHT D1 IS NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COLORADO COUNTIES
INCLUDED ARE  MONTEZUMA...LA PLATA...ARCHULETA...SAN
JUAN...DOLORES...SAN MIGUEL AND PORTIONS OF DELTA...MONTROSE...OURAY
AND HINSDALE. IN UTAH THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF SAN JUAN COUNTY.

SEVERE DROUGHT...D2...IMPACTS INCLUDE HIGH WILDLAND FIRE
DANGER...CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES...AND WATER SHORTAGES AND
RESTRICTIONS. MANY AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING THESE IMPACTS...AND IF
CONDITIONS PERSIST THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE.

EXTREME DROUGHT...D3...IMPACTS INCLUDE EXTREME WILDLAND FIRE
DANGER...MAJOR CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES...WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES
AND WATER RESTRICTIONS. THESE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IF
CURRENT CONDITIONS PERSIST.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

MARCH THROUGH THE FIRST 28 DAYS HAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
MOST OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE OVER THE EXTREME UPPER
COLORADO BASIN AND OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OF THE UINTA BASIN WERE
PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MARCH.

LATE JANUARY THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY HAD MOST LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PART OF EAST
MOFFAT COUNTY WHICH HAD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL AND OVER THE
WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH WAS NEAR NORMAL. FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES REMAINED BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER HAS TRENDED COLDER THAN NORMAL AFTER THE
LATE SUMMER AND FALL HAD BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
JANUARY SO FAR HAS TRENDED WELL BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER TRENDED TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WAS DIFFERENT THAN THE LATE SUMMER
AND FALL WHICH WAS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FALL MONTHS FOR ALL MAJOR
BASINS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. AREAS OF DROUGHT SPREAD
IN COVERAGE AND BECAME WORSE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF WESTERN COLORADO BY THE LATE FALL AND
CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

FROM DECEMBER 2011 THROUGH JUNE 2012 EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO GENERALLY RECEIVED WELL BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPERIENCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTED THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO SPRING OF
2012 THROUGH EARLY SUMMER 2012. SUMMER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON SEASON ARRIVED AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE 2012
SUMMER AND HELPED THE DROUGHT STABILIZE.

MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH 2012. THE WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUED THROUGH APRIL AND MAY OF 2012 WITH TEMPERATURES
3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN THE MONTH OF
JUNE 2012 TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL BY 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN JULY 2012 WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AUGUST THROUGH NOVEMBER 2012 HAD AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DECEMBER START TO BUCK THE WARM TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
MONTH.

BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2012 TO MARCH 29 2013:
-----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

SNOTEL SITES

BASIN                                TOTAL
                                     PRECIP
-----                                ------
YAMPA/WHITE                            78
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS              79
ROARING FORK                           70
GUNNISON                               69
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL                     74
SAN JUAN                               68
ANIMAS                                 68

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                                TOTAL
                                     PRECIP
-----                                ------
GREEN                                  80
DUCHESNE                               74
SOUTH EASTERN UTAH                     75

-------------------------------------------

PRECIPITATION VALUES FROM JAN 1 2013 THROUGH MAR 28 2013:
---------------------------------------------------------
CLIMATE SITES

SITE              OBSERVED    NORMAL    DEPARTURE   PERCENT
LOCATION           VALUE      VALUE      FROM        OF
                                        NORMAL      NORMAL
------            -------     ------    -------    -------
ASPEN              2.21        3.40      -1.19        65
CORTEZ             2.51        2.96      -0.45        85
CRAIG              1.71        2.83      -1.12        60
DURANGO            2.61        3.41      -0.80        77
GRAND JUNCTION     1.35        1.94      -0.59        69
MEEKER             1.54        3.01      -1.47        51
MONTROSE           1.23        2.14      -0.91        57
RIFLE              1.32        2.61      -1.29        50
CANYONLANDS ARPT   0.69        1.85      -1.16        37
VERNAL             1.72        1.63       0.09       105

---------------------------------------------------------


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE HAS THE
REGION IN A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE ENSO CYCLE IS REMAINING NEUTRAL.
ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE TURNED NEGATIVE. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF SPRING.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

AVERAGE SEVEN DAY AND 28 DAY STREAM FLOW HAVE BEEN BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST BASINS IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

RESERVOIRS LEVELS DECREASED STEADILY DURING THE 2012 WARM SEASON
WITH SOME SMALL RESERVOIRS BEING DEPLETED EARLY FOR THE 2012 SEASON
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WATER DEMAND. CARRYOVER FOR MANY RESERVOIRS IS
LOW THIS YEAR.


RESERVOIR               PERCENT OF CAPACITY
                        AS OF MAR 29, 2013
---------               -------------------
BLUE MESA                       40
CRYSTAL                         82
CRAWFORD                        11
FRUIT GROWERS                   48
LEMON                           20
MCPHEE                          49
MORROW                          89
PAONIA                          06
RIDGWAY                         68
RIFLE GAP                       50
RUEDI                           60
SILVER JACK                     25
TAYLOR PARK                     54
VALLECITO                       39


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY APRIL 30 2013...OR SOONER AS
NECESSARY IF THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE
WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
WATER.USGS.GOV

NRCS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER
DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USBR AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAND JUNCTION CO WFO
2844 AVIATORS WAY
GRAND JUNCTION CO 81506


$$

AS
National Weather Service Regional Office
