National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS63 KGLD 190836
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY
LOCATED UPSTREAM NEAR WASHINGTON. AT THE SFC...LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
TRIBUNE WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME
AND WERE LIFTING TO THE NORTH.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF
COLD FRONT AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STAYING SOME WHAT
CONSTANT IN ADDITION TO LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS THINK POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE THE SFC WILL REMAIN LOW. DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NORTH TODAY...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH LITTLE CINH SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO REDEVELOP TODAY EVEN WITH MODEST SFC HEATING. WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED AND LACK OF STRONG NEAR SFC FORCING MECHANISM NOT SURE I
WANT TO GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THINK
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA...AM HESITANT TO
GO TOO WARM FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SKIES WILL
CLOUD UP IN SEVERAL AREAS ONCE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S. WAS LEANING
TOWARDS LOWERING TEMPS TOWARDS THESE VALUES BUT WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY
AROUND 60 AM HESITANT TO GO WITH SUCH A SMALL DIURNAL CURVE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENSEMBLE DATA AND OPERATIONAL MODELS POINTING TO
NORTHERN CWA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF NEAR SFC FORCING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION COVERAGE SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
NOW. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
COLORADO...AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
EAST WITHIN VICINITY OF KGLD BY 08Z. COULDNT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCMK...HOWEVER WITH FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINAL AND INSTABILITY DECREASING AFTER
09Z...THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER. DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KGLD FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

OTHER PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING PATCHY/LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VICINITY OF KMCK THROUGH 14Z. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO LOWER THAN MVFR CIG/VIS FOR KMCK DURING THIS
ISSUANCE. PROGRESSION OF FRONT/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACT ON WHETHER THIS FOG DEVELOPS OR NOT AT KMCK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE MIDWEST
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FILTER INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  500 MB JET
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. MID AND LOW LEVEL
JET SPEEDS ARE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.  JET SPEEDS AT THE
UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO PICK UP SPEED FOR FRIDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
TO THE EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROPAGATES ALONG THE ROCKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE
UPPER LEVELS INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TROUGH STALLS OUT TO THE WEST AS THE NEW
UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM STAGNATES...KEEPING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN GFS AND ECMWF
AROUND THE KS/OK AREA....WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS CHANGING DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.  A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFER FOR THE AVAILABILITY OF CAPE...WITH GFS UP TO 700 AND
ECMWF UP TO 1600 J/KG FOR FRIDAY.  THETA E VALUES OF 340 K AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOW AMPLE MOSITURE AT THE
SURFACE FOR FRIDAY.  SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY...BRINGING MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG.  LIFTED INDICIES BETWEEN
-2 AND -6 CELCIUS...AND K INDEX VALUES AROUND 35 CELCIUS ALSO
INDICATE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
OVER MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY.  DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.  INCREASED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...DR
National Weather Service Regional Office
