376
FXUS64 KOUN 302355
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
655 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Daytime heating this afternoon will support the chance for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms along a diffuse dryline as
convective inhibition weakens across western Oklahoma. Effective
bulk shear will be modest (~35 knots) for supercells. The expected
hazards will be damaging wind gusts and hail; however, if any
supercell can sustain themselves into the evening, there will be a
short window of opportunity for a low tornado threat as the low-
level jet strengthens with an attendant increase in low-level
storm relative helicity. Thunderstorms should weaken with the loss
of daytime heating as convective inhibition strengthens.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas in
association with a cold front, which will likely move southward into
north central Oklahoma tonight. Warm air advection associated
with a low-level jet may result in continued development in this
zone. Given the heavy rainfall they experienced with the last
event, we opted to issue a Flood Watch for north central Oklahoma.

For tomorrow, the uncertainty is on how far southwest the outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms will progress. This
boundary may serve as a focus for redevelopment tomorrow
afternoon. Another scenario is that convection may continue to
move to the southwest through the day and never fully dissipate.
In addition, the dryline should retreat farther to the west, into
the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Both of these boundaries (and
any associated intersection) will result in a chance for
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible.

Tomorrow night, there is evidence that any ongoing thunderstorms
may consolidate into one or two complexes that will move across
the area.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

There remains uncertainty on where the cold front will be
Thursday as it will depend on what happens Wednesday night. The
cold front will likely get another southward push on Thursday with
another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The aforementioned cold front will likely lift back to the north
on Friday with persistent southwest flow into the upcoming
weekend. As a result, there will be continued periods of showers
and thunderstorms. Flooding will likely become a hazard in some
locations given the recent rainfall across the area.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

TSRA expected to have impacts mainly at KPNC and KSWO overnight
into tomorrow morning (closer to incoming from across southern
Kansas). Impacts at KCSM, KLAW, and KSPS is possible for the
first few hours of forecast before dissipating. Frontal boundary
expected to progress down toward central Oklahoma toward 12Z,
possibly reinforced by TSRA outflow, but retreat during the day
tomorrow. PROB30 will be included central Oklahoma tomorrow
afternoon near retreating front. TSRA will also be possible across
western Oklahoma by end of forecast, but impacts may occur just
beyond this forecast valid time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  79  64  78 /  30  50  40  80
Hobart OK         62  82  61  81 /  20  40  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  65  82  64  83 /  50  30  60  50
Gage OK           58  87  58  79 /  20  40  40  20
Ponca City OK     61  80  65  77 /  80  50  50  90
Durant OK         65  83  65  79 /  20  30  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ007-008-012-013.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11