Text Products for ESF Issued by PBZ

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FGUS71 KPBZ 151222
ESFPBZ
WVC069-221230-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
822 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...Flood Potential for the next two weeks is near normal for the
Ohio Valley...

...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is near normal to slightly
below for the Ohio Valley...

The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio and
Pennsylvania.

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
0.50-2.00 inches generally fell across Ohio (50 to 150 percent of
normal). Across western Pennsylvania 2.00-5.00 inches fell
(150-300 percent of normal).

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Current soil moisture conditions are below normal across majority of
the basin. Western Pennsylvania soil moisture is slightly above
normal.

State rankings:
Ohio - Below normal
Western Pennsylvania - Slightly above normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
Current streamflows are generally near normal across the Ohio Valley
with some pockets of below normal.

State rankings:
Ohio - Normal to slightly below normal across the north
Western Pennsylvania - Normal

For more information please visit:
https://watermonitor.gov

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pool levels across the
Ohio Valley.

OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Current flow along the Ohio River are above normal upstream of
McAlpine Lock and Dam and slightly below downstream of McAlpine
Lock and Dam.

Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and
below 100% are below normal.

Pittsburgh - 170%
Huntington - 130%
Cincinnati - 130%
Louisville - 115%
Evansville -  95%
Smithland  -  90%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
There is currently no snow pack across the Ohio Valley

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
No ice is present across the Ohio Valley.

2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

The two-week outlook calls for near normal rainfall potential and near
normal flood potential.

A weather system will bring rainfall to the Ohio Valley the end of this
week. The highest amounts forecast are across the western basin.
After this system, the next several days will be fairly dry. The
chance of precipitation returns the third week of March. This is
normal for the month of March.


OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be slightly above normal
over the next 14 days.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above
normal and values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 150%
Huntington - 115%
Cincinnati - 125%
Louisville - 125%
Evansville - 105%
Smithland  - 115%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc

90 DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK

The flood outlook for the next 90 days acorss the Ohio Valley continue
to favor normal to slightly below normal flood risk.


STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring
to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It
also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are
based on current and forecast conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future
precipitation.


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National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
