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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 180112
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
812 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Tonight.

A more zonal flow aloft will develop over the area as more
shortwave disturbances move east over the area while mid-level
ridging becomes more confined over the South-Central Gulf of
Mexico while the potent upper low moves northeast over Northern
Michigan. Surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast
Atlantic Coast while another surface low deepens over Kansas with
the stalled cold front draped from that low east across the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley Region and across the Eastern Ohio River
Valley.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy north and west and partly cloudy
southeast. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue to be focused generally along the
Interstate 20 corridor, affecting the north-central portion of the
forecast area with lower chances elsewhere. Winds will be from
the south to southwest at 3-5 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

Thursday.

Weak longwave ridging will temporarily rebuild over the eastern
portion of the area early Thursday afternoon while a shortwave
disturbance moves east over Eastern Oklahoma and Texas and will
approach the area later in the evening. Surface low pressure will
move northeast to near the St. Louis, MO area toward midday with a
cold front extending southwest from the low to near the
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX metro area while surface high pressure
remains well to our southeast.

Skies will range from partly cloudy northeast to mostly cloudy
south and west with isolated showers through the morning hours
followed by isolated showers and a few thunderstorms by midday
through early afternoon. Chances for showers and storms are
expected to increase toward the evening with the approaching
shortwave where showers and storms may organize into a convective
complex to our northwest and move into the area during the night.
Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures
will be in the mid 80s areawide.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Some of the CAMS are showing a MCS developing near the Missouri
Bootheel Thursday evening and tracking southeast. The remnants of
the MCS will likely impact north Alabama after midnight, and
increased rain chances for areas north of I-20. Expect the MCS to
be in a weakening state as it moves into north Alabama, and will
not highlight any severe threat at this time. This outflow will
leave a boundary across north Alabama on Friday. A cold front will
move into northwest Alabama Friday morning. It is unclear which
boundary will be the focus for diurnal convection, but there is
enough potential instability for some stronger storms Friday
afternoon, mainly along and north of I-20. A lull in the activity
Friday night and into Saturday morning, but the cold front will
continue to push southward and end up across far south Alabama
Saturday morning. Upper level forcing will increase along the I-20
corridor on Saturday as a short wave trough over the southwest
United States ejects eastward. Expect scattered showers and
isolated storms to increase north of the stationary cold front on
Saturday, with more widespread rain Saturday night and Sunday. The
low levels of the atmosphere north of I-85 will be rather stable
Saturday night and Sunday, with highs on Sunday ranging from the
upper 50s northwest to upper 60s near I-85. Removed mention of
thunderstorms for areas north of I-85. The rain will exit east
Alabama Sunday evening with rain free conditions Monday and
Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

A few convective boundaries have moved down from the north and
northwest. This has allowed some showers and thunderstorms to
develop near these boundaries. The coverage and strength of the
convection will diminish this evening. Therefore, have mention of
VCSH this evening. Thereafter, VFR ceilings will lower to
MVFR/IFR with potential LIFR south. The timing will be watched as
some earlier arrival may occur and potential for lower ceilings
and vis is also on the table. Ceilings slowly rise by 17z or so
to VFR. Then the mention of thunderstorms is introduced after 18z
north. Winds will be light and variable overnight and becomes
south southwest 5-10kts on Thursday.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into the evening
hours across north Alabama. Max RH values overnight will be near
100 percent. Much of the area will remain dry on Thursday with
increasing rain chances late Thursday night for areas north of
I-20. Min RH values 45-55% on Thursday. 20 foot winds should be
light and variable tonight becoming south 5-7 mph by Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  86  61  80 /  50  30  50  50
Anniston    60  86  63  81 /  50  30  40  40
Birmingham  63  85  65  81 /  50  30  40  40
Tuscaloosa  65  85  65  81 /  50  30  30  30
Calera      63  85  65  81 /  50  30  30  40
Auburn      63  84  65  82 /  10  20  10  20
Montgomery  64  85  64  85 /   0  20  10  20
Troy        62  85  64  86 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...75
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
