869
FXUS61 KCTP 072341
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
741 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
- A warm front will drift northeast across the area this
  evening with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm
  across southern PA.
- Low pressure moves just north of the area tonight into
  Wednesday morning, brining showers and thunderstorms.
- A stronger wave of low pressure will move across southern PA
  Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Some isolated showers will continue across SE PA this evening
with a shower potentially grazing Warren/Elk counties as it
moves northeast and into western NY between 8-9pm. Showers are
expected to taper off/dissipate around 9pm this evening with a
brief break and no precipitation.

Temps did slightly overperform today, allowing for slightly
warmer than forecast MinTs this evening with increasing cloud
cover throughout the evening and overnight hours. MinTs will
remain fairly uniform ranging from the upper 50s across the
northern tier to lower 60s across the southern tier.

Low pressure moves toward PA and western NY late overnight with
recent model solutions outlining a slower progression. PWAT
values topping out near 1.5" with a slight increase in CAPE that
will promote numerous SHRA/TSRA. Models continue to outline
that the area of greatest coverage remains across W PA in the
03-07Z timeframe overnight as the nose of a moderately strong,
35-45 KT LLJ approaches the region. Precipitation will continue
moving eastward overnight with some lingering showers and
thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania during the early
morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering precipitation is possible at the very beginning
of the short-term period across eastern PA, before drier
conditions are expected to prevail for Wednesday. Recent model
soundings have outlined much drier air aloft, which limits
precipitation chances throughout much of the day. Model 850mb
temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid- and upper 70s
over the N Mtns, to the low and mid-80s in the valleys of
Central/Southern PA. Mixed in lower PWATs via the NBM 25 pctl
values for Wed afternoon as sfc dewpoints dive into the 40s (and
possibly a few u30s across the Northern Mtns) during the late
afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While Wednesday will be mainly dry for much of the time, wet
conditions work back into the area for Thursday. A sfc low
still looks like it will track right along the PA, MD border.
High temperatures for the most part will be below 70 degrees,
and extensive cloud cover as well, will limit the chance for
thunder. SPC has slight near the border in the far southeast.
Storm development will depend on the track of the low and
if much in the way of heating can occur during the day on
Thursday.

While rain will not occur all the time on Thursday or be very
heavy, much of the day will feature at least some spotty rain
and drizzle.

While the low moves off the coast on Friday, cooling aloft will
result in a chilly day, along with some showers.

A brief break is likely for early Saturday, but another low
drops southeast later on during the weekend, so looking at no
real dry spells anytime soon. An upper level ridge building
across the western states will aid in keeping more of the same
type of conditions over our area into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shower could produce a brief vis reduction in the vicinity of
KMDT/KLNS through around 01Z. Otherwise, confidence is high for
widespread VFR flying conditions and light winds across Central
PA this evening.

Low pressure lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks will spread a
broken line of showers/tsra through the region late tonight,
lasting 2-3 hours and accompanied by possible MVFR vis
reductions. An increasingly moist southwest flow ahead of an
upstream cold front is then likely to yield late night IFR cigs
at KBFD and possible IFR cigs at KJST. Downsloping flow east of
the Alleghenies should result in nothing worse than MVFR
conditions over that part of the state.

The passage of a low level jet late tonight could result in
borderline LLWS conditions across the W Mtns late tonight.
However, the 18Z Bufkit soundings suggest we will remain just
below criteria.

The cold front will sweep through the region later Wed morning,
probably without any precipitation. A drier westerly flow behind
the front will bring a return to widespread VFR conditions
between 12Z-15Z.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.

Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.

Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief
vis reductions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Fitzgerald