Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182102
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
202 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and a cold front will be moving across
New Mexico and west Texas Monday and Tuesday. This weather pattern
will produce windy conditions with a few lowland rain and high
mountain snow showers on Monday with cooler breezy conditions
occurring on Tuesday. Westerly winds will cause seasonably mild
temperatures and dry weather Thursday through next weekend.
Another disturbance may cause breezy to windy weather next
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rather active weather pattern expected this week though impacts
will be minor most locations. Early this afternoon a deep upper
low was centered over Washington with trailing trough axis
extending into northern Baja. Zonal flow ahead of system is
occurring through the Rocky Mountains with downslope warming
inducing moderate lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado and
attendant lee surface trough extending into eastern New Mexico.
This pattern will cause breezy to marginally windy conditions this
afternoon. Water vapor images showing backing flow ahead of the
system is transporting modest amounts of moisture via Baja and
this will support mainly isolated light rain showers lower
elevations with light snows possible only over the higher
mountains mainly above 7500 feet.

By Monday afternoon upper low will be located over Idaho with
primary trough axis pivoting into western Arizona. Approach of
trough will cause gradients to further strengthen with more
intense secondary lee cyclogenesis occurring over Colorado. Mixing
heights will be around 700 mb by mid afternoon across the CWA
where 50 kt wind speeds will exist. Overall scenario will
therefore favor even higher winds across southern New Mexico and
west Texas on Monday with advisories required for most of the
region. Southern New Mexico and west Texas will also be located
in the right rear quadrant of 120 kt upper jet streak while weak
upper wave ejects across the southern Rockies ahead of primary
trough axis. With deep upper forcing occurring expect mainly
isolated light rain showers lowlands with light snow higher
mountains as moisture inflow will also be diminishing.

Breezy to windy conditions expected Tuesday as primary trough
axis remains through central Arizona causing increasing dynamic
lift across the CWA. A weak Pacific cold front will also move
eastward through New Mexico and far west Texas causing
temperatures to cool to around 5 degrees below normal. Moisture
inflow will minimal but again forcing will prove sufficient for a
few areas of mainly light rains or high mountain snows. At moment
expect snow amounts to be less than 2 inches with snowfall mainly
above 7000 feet Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Strong zonal flow aloft will bring dry weather Wednesday as
primary trough axis reforms further west through California.
Upper waves ejecting across the southern Rockies and associated
lee surface troughing to the east may generate breezy to windy
conditions again Thursday and Friday with the westerly winds
supporting near normal temperatures through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
An upper level trough of low pressure will swing through the CWA
later Sunday through Tuesday resulting in incrg clds, gusty west
winds, and spotty light _SHRA. Through the PD SKY: SCT-BKN 040-060
SCT-BKN 100 BKN250. Isold areas 6SM -SHRA BKN040 moving ENE arn 25-
35MPH. SFC WINDS  WWSW15G25KTS ISOLD GUSTS 40-50 MPH lowlands E OF
MTNS AND 60 MPH MTN TOPS AFT 18Z. LGT MECHNL TURBC OVR NR MTNS E
slopes BLO 15K MSL INCRG TO MDT AFT 18Z. Patchy BLDU psbl aft 18Z.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The primary focus over the next couple days will be breezy to windy
conditions today and Monday. An upper level system will bring a
slight chance of rain showers on Sunday along with breezy afternoon
west winds around 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will
be 5-10 degrees above normal. Monday will be cooler and drier with
west winds 25-30 mph and gusts around 40 mph. The rest of the week
will feature light winds and near normal temperatures. Min RH will
stay above 20 percent area wide through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 56  67  49  59 /  10  20   0  10
Sierra Blanca           50  72  43  65 /   0  20   0   0
Las Cruces              49  65  41  56 /  20  20   0  10
Alamogordo              48  66  41  56 /  20  20  10  20
Cloudcroft              33  40  26  36 /  40  30  30  20
Truth or Consequences   48  66  39  55 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City             41  54  31  45 /  40  40  40  20
Deming                  45  65  38  54 /  20  20  10  20
Lordsburg               43  64  36  52 /  20  20  10  20
West El Paso Metro      56  67  48  59 /  10  20   0  10
Dell City               49  69  42  63 /   0  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            53  72  46  66 /   0  20   0   0
Loma Linda              50  63  42  55 /   0  20   0  10
Fabens                  53  70  45  63 /  10  20   0  10
Santa Teresa            50  66  44  58 /  10  20   0  10
White Sands HQ          52  67  44  57 /  10  20   0  10
Jornada Range           46  66  40  55 /  20  20   0  10
Hatch                   46  68  38  57 /  20  20   0  10
Columbus                49  67  41  57 /  20  20  10  20
Orogrande               51  68  44  58 /  10  20   0  10
Mayhill                 41  51  34  46 /  40  30  30  20
Mescalero               37  49  31  44 /  40  30  30  20
Timberon                38  49  32  45 /  30  30  30  20
Winston                 36  55  28  47 /  30  20  20  20
Hillsboro               43  60  35  50 /  20  20  20  20
Spaceport               44  65  39  55 /  20  20  10  20
Lake Roberts            32  52  24  43 /  40  40  40  20
Hurley                  40  57  35  47 /  30  40  30  20
Cliff                   40  62  35  47 /  40  40  40  20
Mule Creek              41  57  35  44 /  40  40  30  20
Faywood                 42  58  34  48 /  30  30  30  20
Animas                  45  65  37  55 /  20  20  10  20
Hachita                 43  65  37  55 /  20  20  10  20
Antelope Wells          47  64  38  58 /  30  30  10  20
Cloverdale              46  58  37  52 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from noon Monday to midnight MST Monday night for
     NMZ402>413-417.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM Monday to midnight MST Monday night for
     NMZ414>416.

TX...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Monday to midnight MST Monday night for
     TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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