083
FXUS63 KGLD 041938
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
138 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday will see a chance for severe thunderstorms east of
  Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska from the
  late morning to mid afternoon hours.

- Also on Monday, for areas west of Highway 25 near critical to
  critical fire weather conditions will be likely during the
  afternoon due to low humidity and gusty west winds. Some
  patchy blowing dust will also be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

High pressure in control today with light winds and mostly sunny
skies. Tonight, return flow around the high begins with
increasing southeasterly winds. Stratus will develop by 12z in
the Kansas and Colorado border area, with perhaps some patchy
fog, expanding across much of the area through the morning. HRRR
suggests the low clouds will be slow to erode through Sunday
afternoon in central and eastern portions of the area,
potentially impacting temperatures. Hard to find much support
for lower temperatures in guidance, so will only tweak
temperatures down a few degrees in eastern areas. It will also
be windy with south to southeast winds gusting over 40 mph in
western areas by the afternoon as a trough deepens in eastern
Colorado. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s and highs on
Sunday in the 60s in the aforementioned cooler areas to the
lower 70s in western areas with some afternoon sun.

Sunday night will see those winds continue to increase. Models
may be over mixing, particularly the GFS, but still going to be
breezy to windy south winds through the night. Upper trough axis
will be in central Colorado by early Monday morning. May see
scattered showers begin to develop overnight Sunday with an
isolated thunderstorm or two with favorable MUCAPE.

As upper trough lifts into the Nebraska panhandle Monday morning
westerly winds will overspread the area aloft and at the
surface. Dry line will race eastward in the morning and by 18z
probably be all the way to Highway 83. There is a short window,
between about 16z and 20z, when the dry line may still be in
the area and thunderstorms may initiate. Forecast soundings
from the NAMnest, which initiates storms on the dry line in the
eastern six counties, shows around 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 60
kts of 0-6km shear, which should be sufficient for a severe risk
of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Meanwhile,
west of the dry line it will be dry and windy with a risk for
critical fire weather conditions. Lowest humidity will be south
of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 with high probabilities
for relative humidity of 15% or lower and for wind gusts of 25
mph or higher. However, models not in the best of agreement on
potential for meeting high wind warning criteria. NBM
probabilities for gusts of 55 mph or greater are generally
confined to Colorado during the morning at 20-30 percent,
decreasing in the afternoon. Finally, low level lapse rates west
of the dry line are favorable for blowing dust, but wind gusts
a bit lacking, and recent rainfall may negate some of the
potential as well. Precipitation should be done for the area by
Monday afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 70s and lows Monday
night ranging from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s
in eastern areas.

On Tuesday, the upper low will be in the northern plains with
zonal flow across the central plains. It will be breezy to
windy and dry. Critical fire weather conditions may be met once
again, but potentially more widespread compared to Monday with
just about the entire area dropping into the teens for humidity
in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 70s and lows
Tuesday night ranging from the middle 30s in Colorado to the
lower 40s in eastern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Upper low in the northern plains will be the dominant feature
Wednesday through Friday. Occasional shortwave energy rotating
around it will bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms.
However, moisture will be lacking, dew points in the 20s on
Wednesday and 30s on Thursday and Friday, so no severe storms
are anticipated. With those low dew points on Wednesday and
continued gusty west to northwest winds may see another day of
critical fire weather across parts of the area. Highs will be
mainly in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s each day.

By Saturday appears the upper low will finally lose its
influence over the area with shortwave ridging ahead of the next
system in the Great Basin. Temperatures will warm up slightly
with highs in the 60s and 70s with only low chances for an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm with a weak wave coming over
the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR expected to prevail through this afternoon and this evening
at both KGLD and KMCK. By early Sunday morning, low clouds and
patchy fog will overspread the area from the southeast. Both
terminals will have a period of IFR conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024