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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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FXUS63 KILX 181714
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECASTS NEEDED THIS MORNING...ASIDE FROM
REMOVAL OF EARLIER FOG MENTION.

CLOUDS PIVOTING AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS INDIANA...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE DIURNAL HEATING PICKS UP.
TEMPERATURES LOOKING ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
AREAS...BUT HAVE KEPT A FEW UPPER 70S IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

GEELHART


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

HAVE SEEN SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASED...BUT CEILINGS ARE STEADILY LIFTING TO
AROUND 5000 FEET AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AROUND KCMI...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO FADE OUT BY SUNSET. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATER IN
THE NIGHT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING WINDS AFTER 06Z
SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO PERIODS FOR VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES...BUT
EXPANDED THEM TO ABOUT A 4 HOUR WINDOW.

GEELHART

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WILL CONTINUE PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL INTO MID
MORNING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DAYTIME HEATING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN IL BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND
COOLEST AROUND PARIS...MATTOON/CHARLESTON AND EFFINGHAM AREAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY OVER THE WABASH RIVER
VALLEY OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWER IN THE LOWER 60S AND COOLEST
BY DANVILLE AND PARIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO IL SUNDAY
ALONG WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH IL TO BRING WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY...WITH BEST CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NW OF THE IL RIVER. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS (15% RISK SEVERE)
WILL BE WEST OF IL SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SPC EXTENDS A
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME
SHORT WAVES PIVOT INTO THAT REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
15% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CUTOFF AND SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND AGAIN TUE WITH WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND SOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON/TUE NIGHT. NUDGED MONDAY HIGHS A BIT
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS TUE 80-85F EAST OF THE IL
RIVER AND UPPER 70S WEST OF THE IL RIVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS HAVE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI WED AND LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REGION TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. STRONGEST
STORMS WED APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN/SE IL OR INTO INDIANA DEPENDING
ON SPEED OF STORM SYSTEM. LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING INTO IL...THEN TRENDING DRIER LATER NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FROM THU THROUGH SAT.

07


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
National Weather Service Regional Office
