Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMAF 241506 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
906 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...
The Dense Fog Advisory has expired.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving through the area and much
drier air is moving in from the northwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 726 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

UPDATE...
Issued short duration Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...
Small area of dense fog just ahead of the cold front across parts
of the central/western PB/Lea Co is expected to dissipate around
9 AM CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue at most of the terminals this
morning before a cold front pushes moisture east. VFR conditions
will return late this morning with windy conditions developing.
Expect west winds gusting near 30 kts with patchy BLDU possible.
Winds will decrease after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations show some dense fog is forming this morning
across the Permian Basin, but it is much more patchy and isolated
than seen yesterday morning so will not issue an advisory at this
time. A deep upper trough will move into the Central Plains today
causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy
conditions across much of the remainder of the area. Considered
issuing a Wind Advisory but the timing of the trough is not quite
favorable, with 850mb winds strongest at noon and decreasing
during the afternoon. That will only provide a brief window for
marginal advisory winds and not worthy of issuing the product.

The trough will push a Pacific front through but there will be
very little cold air advection due to significant airmass
modification. Zonal flow will bring temps back above normal to
start next week with low dewpoints leaving no chance for rainfall.
Another trough, very similar to the current one, approaches
Wednesday. Again, this system will be characterized by windy
conditions and dry air with a heavily modified airmass bringing
little cool air.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Windy conditions are expected to develop across the area later this
morning as a storm system passes to the north. Even with
temperatures this afternoon similar to yesterday, much drier air
will filter in from the west. RFTI values mostly near 5-6 are
expected, but recent cool and moist weather has allowed fuel
moisture to increase (ERC-G values near 50%). LLTR looks to remain
well east of the area so will issue a widespread Fire Danger
Statement. Fuels will continue to dry into Sunday with another warm,
windy day expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  32  70  30 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  30  66  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  40  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  36  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  33  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          58  27  63  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  24  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  32  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  32  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  29  69  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

24/49


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.