Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 250954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
354 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018


Some light rain still lingers in North Mississippi although the
flooding rains have shifted off to the East. Rainfall totals over
the last several days have been impressive...over 7 inches across
portions of Northeast Arkansas as well as portions of North
Mississippi with widespread totals over three inches. A weak mid
level disturbance will track from South Louisiana into Central
Mississippi today. As a result precipitation is expected to surge
back to the North this afternoon and overnight. Just how far
North it makes it is in question...but rain accumulations should
be highest near the Tennessee River and Alabama state line in
Northeast Mississippi. Luckily this area has not received quite as
much rain as areas farther West. Up to one half of an inch of
rain is possible.

Monday and Tuesday should be dry with plenty of sunshine Monday.
Clouds will return from the West Tuesday with mostly cloudy
conditions expected area wide by the late afternoon hours.

Unfortunately the middle of the week looks wet. Guidance looks
very much like the system we just experienced. Strong Southwest
flow will set up with a series of disturbances tracking from East
Texas across the midsouth Tuesday night through early Thursday. A
surface low will develop in the Central Plains early Wednesday and
track across North Missouri into East Iowa by early Thursday.
Aloft...a fairly strong trough will approach the Mississippi River
obtaining a neutral tilt. Moisture may not be quite as abundant
with the midweek system as we just saw. Model dew points are
forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s instead of upper 60s...but
many of the dynamic parameters look the same. Severe thunderstorms
look possible mainly across East central Arkansas into North
Mississippi. In addition to the severe threat, much of the
Midsouth can expect 2-4 inches of rainfall. WPC has the axis of
heaviest accumulation along the Mississippi Tennessee State line.
Even with a couple of days early in the week to dry out, flash
flood guidance will remain quite low. Additional flooding is
possible. High pressure will build in Thursday night. We should
see dry conditions Friday through next weekend.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm through Thursday...then
near to slightly above normal Friday into next weekend.



For 06Z TAFs

VFR conditions at all sites except TUP. Expect TUP to improve to
VFR in a couple hours. MKL and TUP may have some fog/mist develop,
however, not confident enough in timing or intensity. Winds will
weaken overnight and veer to the North. TLSJr




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