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FXUS64 KOUN 060728
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
228 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

**SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT**

SUMMARY - All the ingredients still appear to be coming together for
a significant severe event as a potent shortwave trough ejects into
the plains later this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, moisture
advection is underway with fog and low stratus seen across central
and southern parts of the area. Moisture advection will continue
through the day, contributing to strong instability by peak
daytime heating. Wind fields will also be strong, with large,
curved hodographs seen in model soundings across much of the area,
especially towards and after 00z as the low level jet ramps up.

With high confidence that the necessary ingredients will be there,
the biggest question mark remaining is storm coverage and how far
south storms will develop as the greatest forcing from the trough
passes largely to our north, i.e. will we see widespread
thunderstorm development or just a couple scattered (likely
intense) storms. For now, it appears storm coverage will be
greatest closer to the Kansas border, tapering to isolated near
and south of I-40. Storm mode is a secondary uncertainty, with
several of the CAMs suggesting a faster transition to a more
linear mode across northern Oklahoma, which could decrease the
hail threat but increase the wind threat (lower probability
scenario for now). Tornadoes would be possible with either storm
mode.

SEVERE HAZARDS - The overall environment will support large to giant
hail (>3" in diameter) and significant, long-track tornadoes with
any discrete supercell that develops. Damaging wind gusts will also
be a concern, especially if we see high-precipitation supercells
and/or a transition to more linear modes later on. The environment
will remain supportive of severe weather, including tornadoes, well
after dark. In fact, the tornado environment will only become more
favorable after dark as low-level wind shear maximizes and influx
of a moist and unstable airmass continues. Additionally,
thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could
lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that have seen
excessive rainfall recently.

STORM MOTION - Storm motion will generally be northeast or east-
northeast at 40-50 mph, with right-moving supercells moving east or
east-northeast at 30-35 mph.

TIMING - Convective development is expected first across northwest
and/or western OK by 2-4 PM as the initial forcing with the
shortwave impinges on the dryline. These storms will continue east-
northeastward into north-central OK by early evening, with
additional more isolated thunderstorms potentially developing
further southward into central/southern OK between 6-8 PM and
continuing through the evening. The threat could linger past
midnight across eastern/southeastern parts of the area, but
uncertainty is greater here on if we will see storms develop this
far south and east.

Bottom line: Not everyone will see a storm today, but any storm that
develops will be capable of significant severe weather and should be
taken seriously this afternoon through late this evening!

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Storms will be out of our area before sunrise Tuesday morning, with
mostly sunny skies expected through the day with highs in the low
80s. Models show another shortwave moving into the plains on
Wednesday as moisture attempts to move back northward into our
southeast counties. As of now the flow is expected to veer across
much of our area through the day Wednesday, which should push the
better moisture eastward and confine any thunderstorm chances to our
eastern/southeastern counties. Instability and shear will support
severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat.

After Wednesday the synoptic pattern appears to transition to one
much less favorable for severe weather, with high pressure to our
north confining the deeper moisture well to our south into the
weekend. This should finally give our area a bit of a break,
although we will not completely dry out as rain chances (non-severe)
return to the area Saturday into Sunday.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

IFR-MVFR conditions expected overnight through at least 14-16Z
most terminals. Dense fog/LIFR appears most likely around KPNC and
KSWO north of developing warm front. Moisture return will keep at
least MVFR going most if not all day ahead of dryline. Will
introduce +TSRA to northern and central Oklahoma terminals, with
TEMPO at KPNC/KSWO where coverage is expected to be greater after
00Z. Gusty south winds will veer to southwest/west toward end of
forecast behind dryline/Pac-front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  54  81  64 /  40  50   0   0
Hobart OK         85  51  83  57 /  30  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  55  84  66 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           86  49  85  51 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     80  51  81  58 /  60  80   0  10
Durant OK         82  67  85  68 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11