Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210608 CCA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1208 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 21/06z TAFs, widespread convection persists along South
Texas, towards the ArkLaTex, and towards the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. These showers and storms are training
near the vicinity of a cold front, which is located from north of
KPSN, to KTYR, to just west of KTXK, to near KHOT. The front and
the associated convection will continue to gradually advance east
and southeast across the area over the next 24 hours. The front
will become quasi-stationary across the region allowing convection
to prevail at all TAFs for most of the period. Flight conditions
will continue to deteriorate as terminals become more impacted by
the precip. IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail for most locations
after 21/12z. Winds will become northerly behind the front, and
speeds should remain between 7 and 12 kts.

Note: Amendments remain unscheduled for KELD because the ASOS is
unreliable and no backup observations are available.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 915 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

UPDATE...
Not seeing the bowing/discrete structure in the pre-frontal
storms we saw earlier this evening across portions of Northeast
Texas into Southwest Arkansas with the prefrontal activity quickly
decreasing in coverage and intensity. What is continuing to
blossom is the convection immediately on the front and in the wake
of the frontal boundary with regional radar mosaics showing
convection well west of the I-45 Corridor of Central Texas.

Latest 00z NAM output showing the frontal boundary, which as of
03z was oriented near a DeQueen, Arkansas, Mineola, Texas line,
will continue moving very slowly south and east overnight and
should be just northwest of the Shreveport/Bossier City metro area
by 12z Wed. Thus, convection should continue to build and expand
south and east overnight, encompassing all but our southeast half.
There is good agreement in the latest HRRR and 00z NAM that our
southeast zones should see very little if any precipitation
overnight so have lowered pops across these zones. Otherwise kept
heavy rainfall wording across the Watch area overnight with the
heavier downpours likely not reaching Northwest Louisiana until
near or shortly after sunrise.

Updated hourly grids to mimic current conditions and to account
for the frontal movement into our northwest zones but otherwise,
forecast is in good shape.

Update out shortly...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 21/00z TAFs, convection is likely to affect all TAF sites
this period as a strong cold front gradually move into and across
the area. Flight conditions will vary initially, but IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected at most sites, especially
after 21/06z, as the convection spreads southeast across the
region. The front will become stationary across the area, which
should allow showers and thunderstorms to prevail at most TAF
sites for much of the period.

Note: Amendments are not currently scheduled for KELD because the
ASOS is down, and there are no backup observation facilities.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  64  53  67 /  90 100 100  60
MLU  67  73  56  72 /  30 100 100  80
DEQ  46  51  44  55 / 100 100  80  70
TXK  53  53  45  57 / 100 100 100  60
ELD  62  62  47  63 /  90 100 100  80
TYR  47  51  45  58 / 100 100  80  70
GGG  54  56  49  65 / 100 100  90  70
LFK  66  65  53  71 /  80 100  90  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

09/13


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