Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1125 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...The Spring Flood Potential is near normal for Southern New
England...

The Spring flood potential for southern New England is near
normal. The potential for flooding due to ice jams is over for the
season.

The following web site has a map depicting the flood potential
outlook...http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This is the seventh winter/spring flood potential outlook of the
2017 season.  This outlook is based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and snow
water equivalent, stream and river levels and the amount of ice
coverage, recent precipitation and temperatures, and expected
temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks.

...Recent Precipitation...

Southern New England experienced below normal precipitation for
the first 13 days of March, but a powerful winter storm brought
significant rainfall and snowfall to the region on March 14th.
This event brought month to date precipitation to near normal. A
summary of liquid equivalent precipitation follows.

Cape Cod and the Islands had predominantly rainfall during the
March 14 storm, with a trace to 2 inches of snowfall. Liquid
content ranged from 1.3 to 1.8 inches.

East coastal MA experienced moderate to heavy snowfall on March
14, which eventually changed over to a period of rainfall during
the late morning and afternoon hours. The liquid content of the
snowfall and subsequent rainfall ranged from 1.25 to 2.5 inches.

Interior southern New England experienced predominantly snowfall on
March 14th, with liquid content ranging from 1.25 to over 2 inches.

...Observed snow depths and water equivalents...

The snowpack on the ground as of March 15 was predominantly from the
winter storm that occurred on March 14. Previously, there was a
minimal amount of snow on the ground in southern New England.

As of March 15, across much of southern New England, snow depth
ranged from 8 to 18 inches. The lower snow depths were found in
portions of the Connecticut River Valley, northeast CT, and
eastern MA in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor. Snow depth of 2
to 8 inches was found the I-95 corridor in MA and the northern
half of RI, with localized higher totals in the higher hills of
northwest Rhode Island. Snow depth of a trace to several inches
was found along the immediate coastline of MA including Cape Cod,
as well as south coastal Rhode Island. Block Island, Nantucket
Island and Martha`s Vineyard had bare ground.

The water content of the snow pack ranged mainly from 1 to 2
inches across interior southern New England, and along and west
of the I-95 corridor in MA and RI. Portions of the Worcester Hills
and east slopes of the Berkshires had water content between 2 and
2.5 inches. Water content in the snow pack was mainly around an
inch or less east of the I-95 corridor in MA, and in Rhode Island
along and south of the I-95 corridor.

...River and Ice Conditions...

As of March 15, rivers and streams were running at normal or below
normal levels across MA, northern CT, and northern RI. Rivers and
streams were running at normal to above normal levels in RI. This
was due to the March 14th event being predominantly a
soaking rainfall in that area.

There is no ice issues on the rivers and streams of Southern New
England. Therefore, the flooding potential due to ice jams is over
for this season.

...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture was below normal prior to the March 14th event. The
recent storm provided a boost to area soil moisture in areas
where a period of rainfall occurred.

USGS ground water wells transmitting in real-time are predominantly
below normal in northern CT, and normal to below normal across much
of MA and RI. Wells were predominantly at below or well below normal
levels across Cape Cod and the Islands.

...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

Looking at the forecast, High pressure brings dry and milder
weather for Friday. A clipper low tracks south of New England this
weekend bring the potential for accumulating snow to the area
late Saturday into Sunday. Dry weather and not as cold conditions
return Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Milder
weather is forecast for Tuesday, ahead of an arctic front. This
front will bring the chance for a few showers. A frigid airmass
then overspreads the area the middle of next week.

With daytime highs in the 30s to 40s over the next 7 days,
melting of the existing snow pack will be slow. In addition, there
could be some buildup of the snow pack with this weekend`s
potential clipper.

Looking farther ahead, the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14 Day
Outlook covering the period from March 23 to 29 indicates a
likelihood of below normal temperatures, with the potential for
normal to above normal precipitation.

...Summary...

Based on information available at this time, the spring flood
potential is near normal within southern New England.

Rivers and streams, as well as ground water, are predominantly at
normal to below normal levels for this time of year. However, snow
cover is above normal for this time of year due to the very recent
winter storm. With overall temperatures forecast to be below
normal over the next 7 days, snowmelt is expected to be gradual.
The potential exists for normal to above normal precipitation
within southern New England over the next 2 weeks.

Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the
year. Those with interests along rivers and streams should check the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, which highlights any potential flood
events over the next 7 days. Go to http://weather.gov/boston and
click on the option Hazards, then click on Local Outlook.

The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 30.

$$

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www.weather.gov/boston

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