Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 052006
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MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-062000-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
204 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...2015 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) including the Kansas River...Missouri
River...and their tributaries...in northeast Kansas and northern
Missouri.

...There is a normal to below normal probability of flooding this
Spring...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  27   27   15   25   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  77   79   64   70   <5   <5
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  36   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  67   59   63   57   32   43
:Nodaway River
Burlington Junction 23.0   28.0   35.0 :  12   20   <5   <5   <5  <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  19   36   <5    8   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  19   28   18   27   <5   <5
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  70   74   43   56   <5   <5
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  52   72   30   56   <5   22
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  62   69   37   51    6   21
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Blvd     35.0   39.0   48.0 :  13   17   <5    5   <5  <5
Bannister Road      34.0   40.0   42.0 :   7   10   <5   <5   <5  <5
71 Highway          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5  <5
63rd Street         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5  <5
Kansas City Blue    33.0   38.0   44.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5  <5
Stadium Drive       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5  <5
40 Highway          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5  <5
17th Street         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5  <5
12th Street         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5  <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  18   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  53   54   51   51   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  61   58   42   44   16   28
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  67   82   45   60   20   21
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  83   91   43   40   <5    8
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  56   59   41   49    6    5
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  53   51   19   22   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  57   61   39   46   <5   12
:Thompson River
Trenton             30.0   33.0   37.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  14   43   <5   10   <5   <5
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  22   42   <5   <5   <5   <5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  60   68   40   58   <5    6
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  77   81   72   76   <5   <5
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  23   28   13   16    6    6
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  68   67   21   28   11   12
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  77   93   69   84   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  82   89   57   75   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              8.3   11.2   17.5   22.9   27.3   28.1   28.3
:Stranger Creek
Easton               10.1   12.7   17.4   19.1   20.2   21.0   21.4
Tonganoxie            8.6   12.5   16.1   21.3   24.1   25.1   25.7
:Kansas River
De Soto              11.3   13.1   13.5   15.8   17.6   21.4   23.4
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               7.0    9.7   13.4   20.7   26.8   28.0   28.7
:Nodaway River
Burlington Junction   5.0    7.4    9.0   12.0   18.4   23.7   23.9
:102 River
Maryville             6.3    9.9   11.4   14.5   16.6   20.0   21.0
Rosendale             4.9    9.1   12.4   15.2   17.3   19.5   21.3
:Platte River
Agency               10.0   13.6   18.7   24.1   26.8   28.0   28.5
:Little Platte River
Smithville           13.2   13.9   14.7   16.3   19.1   24.7   27.8
:Platte River
Sharps Station       12.4   14.7   23.3   26.6   29.1   30.3   30.6
Platte City           7.8    9.9   17.0   22.6   27.7   28.8   29.1
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Blvd      26.4   26.5   27.6   29.6   33.9   36.3   39.1
Bannister Road        8.5    9.7   14.1   20.5   27.2   32.7   36.2
71 Highway           36.0   37.1   40.4   45.3   50.3   53.6   56.4
63rd Street          25.5   26.0   27.6   31.4   37.4   41.3   44.7
Kansas City Blue     11.7   13.5   16.6   21.3   24.7   27.4   30.2
Stadium Drive         9.4   11.3   15.1   19.8   24.9   28.3   32.4
40 Highway            5.1    6.5    8.6   12.3   17.0   20.2   23.9
17th Street           2.8    3.3    5.2    8.8   13.4   16.3   19.5
12th Street           8.8   10.9   13.8   17.5   21.4   24.5   27.8
:Little Blue River
Lake City             5.1    5.8    7.0   11.7   16.9   21.8   23.8
:Crooked River
Richmond              8.8   11.8   17.2   21.2   23.1   25.3   26.4
:Thompson River
Trenton              12.2   12.5   18.3   22.4   25.3   27.5   29.2
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.8    3.1    8.2   16.1   22.7   26.0   26.7
Gallatin              2.5    4.5   12.1   18.4   24.8   29.3   30.7
Chillicothe           5.9   10.3   19.8   26.0   30.4   32.7   34.1
Sumner               11.8   16.4   26.5   32.7   34.5   36.0   38.1
:Chariton River
Novinger              1.9    4.3   12.5   15.4   19.7   24.1   26.3
Prairie Hill          3.6    8.0   13.8   16.4   18.6   21.1   21.5
:South Grand River
Urich                17.5   20.1   24.5   27.4   28.3   28.7   29.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown           16.4   17.6   21.8   23.9   25.7   28.2   29.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Tonganoxie            2.4    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.7    1.6
:Kansas River
De Soto               4.5    4.5    4.3    4.2    4.0    3.8    3.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.7    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3
:Nodaway River
Burlington Junction   5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:102 River
Maryville             6.0    5.9    5.9    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6
Rosendale             3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
:Platte River
Agency                5.8    5.8    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.1   12.1   11.9   11.9   11.9   11.9   11.9
:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.2    4.2    4.0    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.5
Platte City          -1.9   -1.9   -2.1   -2.2   -2.4   -2.5   -2.5
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Blvd      24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7
Bannister Road        3.9    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
71 Highway           32.1   32.1   32.1   32.0   32.0   32.0   31.9
63rd Street          22.9   22.7   22.5   22.4   22.2   22.0   22.0
Kansas City Blue      6.7    6.6    6.6    6.6    6.5    6.5    6.5
Stadium Drive         5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.2    3.8
40 Highway           -1.1   -1.1   -1.2   -1.3   -1.3   -1.4   -1.4
17th Street          -0.6   -0.7   -0.9   -1.0   -1.1   -1.3   -1.3
12th Street           2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Crooked River
Richmond              6.0    6.0    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.4    5.4
:Thompson River
Trenton              10.4   10.4   10.4   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.6
Gallatin              2.4    2.3    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Chillicothe           3.6    3.6    3.6    3.3    2.9    2.6    2.5
Sumner                9.1    9.1    9.1    8.7    8.3    8.0    7.8
:Chariton River
Novinger              1.4    1.1    0.5    0.1   -0.1   -0.2   -0.2
Prairie Hill          2.1    2.1    1.8    1.6    1.3    1.2    1.1
:South Grand River
Urich                 1.9    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
:Big Creek
Blairstown            7.6    7.6    7.4    7.2    6.8    6.4    6.3

Outlook:

For the outlook period March through early June...the probability of
flooding is normal to below normal.

Thunderstorms, not snowmelt, will likely be the primary driver of
Spring flooding in the lower third of the Missouri River Basin.
While the probabilities of flooding are below normal in some
cases...many locations which typically flood as a result of normal
Spring rainfall still show a greater than 50 percent chance of
flooding. In addition, typical conditions are expected along the
Missouri River which would result in minor flooding during this
outlook period.

Recent Conditions:

For the past 30 days average temperature values hovered around 10
degrees below normal. Values ranged from the upper teens near the
Iowa border to the middle 20s south of the Missouri River.
Precipitation was also below normal with the majority of the Pleasant
Hill HSA receiving less than 50 percent of normal precipitation.
Values less than an inch of liquid precipitation were common the
past 30 days.

Present Conditions:

During the past 7 days, average streamflow values were near normal
across the majority of the Pleasant Hill HSA. However, below normal
streamflow conditions were found within the lower Kansas River basin.

Soil moisture conditions are currently near normal across the
majority of the Pleasant Hill HSA. However, slightly above normal
soil moisture was found across far northern Missouri and slightly
below normal conditions were found across parts of east-central
Kansas.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, there is no drought across
the Pleasant Hill HSA. However, abnormally dry (D0)conditions were
observed across Johnson, Miami, and Linn counties in eastern Kansas.

Most locations across the Pleasant Hill HSA do not have significant
snow cover.  Recent light snow across east-central Kansas and
west-central Missouri has resulted in some snow cover that generally
contains a tenth of an inch or less water equivalent. Looking at the
Upper Missouri Basin, .current mountain snowpack water content is
near to slightly below normal.

Future Conditions:

For the 6 to 14 Day Period, the climate outlook indicates an
increased probability of above normal temperatures. Precipitation
during this period has a slightly increased probability of being
below normal.

For the Month of March, the climate outlook indicates a slightly
increased probability of below normal temperatures. This outlook
also shows equal chances of above, below, or normal precipitation.

The three month climate outlook for the period March through May
indicates equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures and
precipitation.

This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2015 unless basin
conditions change significantly during the next few weeks.

Please visit our home page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax for more
weather and flood information.

$$

SAW





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