Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
220 PM CST THU MAR 02 2017


...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. it covers the time
period for March through May.  It includes the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana,
southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is below average or below normal for most of the
smaller tributaries in southwest Missouri and southern Illinois for
this time of year. There is an average or normal chance of flooding
on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and other tributaries in
southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. Flooding in this region occurs
mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and
expected precipitation.  Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding
for this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...While precipitation since
December 1 has been below normal across the region, recent rainfall
has helped area streams rebound slightly. Consequently, area rivers
are running normal to a little below normal for this time of year.
Storage capacity on area lakes is running 98 to 100 percent.

Snowfall has been minimal this winter. Very little snow exists
across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys except in the far northern
reaches. Even then, only a few inches remains with a liquid water
equivalent of around 1 inch.

Warmer than normal temperatures and a lack of rain or snow this
winter have lead to soil moisture levels below normal. No days
with a frost depth have been recorded this winter.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/07/2017 - 06/05/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  44   40   23   27   <5    7
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  58   69   28   36   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  56   63   33   37   17   21
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  21   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  37   48   <5    6   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  63   76    7    8   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  77   86   <5    5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  32   44    6    8   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  72   86   24   42   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  68   80   <5    7   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  52   58   35   41   14   18
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  41   43   33   35   21   22
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  75   81   24   25   <5   <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  37   46   17   18   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  43   53   25   28   10    9

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/07/2017 - 06/05/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              14.3   15.4   18.5   22.2   25.5   28.8   31.1
Paradise            371.1  372.1  376.5  381.6  386.5  391.5  394.6
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                12.7   16.6   22.3   28.6   33.7   36.3   37.4
:Ohio River
Evansville           29.2   31.7   34.8   38.1   41.6   42.9   45.5
Golconda             33.6   34.3   35.8   38.2   41.7   45.9   49.3
Mount Vernon         28.8   30.5   33.5   36.6   40.6   42.4   46.5
Newburgh Dam         32.3   35.8   38.3   42.0   44.1   45.0   47.5
Owensboro            29.4   32.2   34.3   37.5   40.9   42.2   45.4
Shawneetown          28.1   29.3   32.3   37.3   42.8   46.8   50.0
J.T. Myers Dam       31.3   32.7   35.9   39.9   43.7   47.0   49.8
:Patoka River
Princeton             7.9    9.7   12.8   18.4   21.1   23.7   24.4
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            7.5    8.9   10.1   12.6   19.2   22.4   25.6
:Wabash River
New Harmony          10.6   11.9   15.1   17.7   19.9   21.0   22.3
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            12.1   14.2   16.7   18.7   21.9   26.2   33.4
Murphysboro          10.5   12.7   14.5   19.7   28.4   35.9   40.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/07/2017 - 06/05/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              11.1   10.9   10.7   10.5   10.3   10.1   10.1
Paradise            365.5  365.3  365.1  364.8  364.6  364.5  364.4
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 4.3    4.0    3.6    3.3    2.9    2.7    2.5
:Ohio River
Evansville           16.4   16.2   15.6   14.8   14.3   14.1   14.0
Golconda             29.7   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6
Mount Vernon         23.9   23.9   23.8   23.6   23.5   23.4   23.4
Newburgh Dam         17.5   16.9   16.2   15.1   14.5   14.2   13.9
Owensboro            19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          18.0   17.6   16.9   16.1   15.7   15.6   15.5
J.T. Myers Dam       18.6   18.0   16.7   15.4   14.7   14.2   13.8
:Patoka River
Princeton             5.6    4.7    4.0    3.0    3.0    2.6    2.6
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.4    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.0    4.9
:Wabash River
New Harmony           4.5    4.3    3.5    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.7
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             8.1    7.4    6.8    5.8    5.1    4.7    4.5
Murphysboro           6.2    5.7    5.6    4.2    3.0    3.0    3.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...

Warmer weather will return by the weekend into early next week with
high temperatures once again 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The next
storm system will move into the region early next week with chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Rain amounts will average 1 to 2
inches.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 9 through 15 calls for above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this
time, normal average temperatures are in the middle and upper 40s
and rainfall during this period is near one inch.

The outlook for March calls for near normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The 90 day
outlook for March through May calls for near normal precipitation as
well.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.

This will be the final spring and water resources outlook for this
year.


$$







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