Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 142037
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
330 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE
FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOODING INDICATES THAT THE
MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF EVENTS WILL BE LESS THAN TYPICAL.

OVERALL...NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WINTER INTO SPRING...THE NUMBER
OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LESS
THAN USUAL FOR MOST OF THE STATE.  DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASED CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FOR RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE, A NORMAL FLOOD SEASON FOR THEM IS FORECAST.

FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT THE AREAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATES ABOVE NORMAL.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA IS NEAR NORMAL. SOME
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL NEAR THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING.

RESERVOIRS...MANY OF THE RESERVOIRS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR TARGET POOLS.
 THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA HAVE
IMPROVED WITH RECENT RAINFALL BUT ARE STILL 5 TO 6 FT BELOW THEIR
GUIDE CURVE. THE TWO MAIN CORPS RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST
WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. THIS IS THE
MAIN RECHARGE SEASON FOR THOSE AND MANY OTHER RESERVOIRS IN THIS
AREA.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTHEAST AT
THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH CHANCE FOR
NORMAL RAINFALL...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN EACH WEEK DURING THE WINTER
IS NEAR NORMAL....MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS HINT AT ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE 2ND WEEK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT DOES
LOOK LIKE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLOODING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATES...MAYBE FOR THE SHORT TERM, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF FLOODING.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WINTER INTO SPRING
SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH
MAY...THE CHANCES HAVE IMPROVED FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.  THIS WOULD MAKE CHANCES FOR
A NORMAL FLOOD SEASON MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATES...BELOW NORMAL IN THE PIEDMONT TO THE COAST.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC.  IN THE WATER SUPPLY
PULLDOWN MENU IS THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.

HAMILL



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