Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS65 KSTR 071541
ESGNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
April 7, 2017

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK


Above average snowmelt peak flows are expected this spring in the San
Juan Basin. Although there are no specific forecast points expected
to reach flood levels at this time, the potential for flooding is still
considered slightly higher than average.

This is in part due to the above average snowpack across the Basin and
saturated soils due to snowmelt that occured in March. Rapid melt due to
unseasonably warm temperatures or significant rain events during the peak
runoff period could lead to flood related issues.

In addition forecast procedures do not exist for all streams. Some smaller
streams in areas where significant snowpack exists may experience some
bankfull conditions due to snowmelt.

Snopwack conditions in the San Juan Basin vary, while many lower elevations
below about 9000 feet experienced signficant snow melt in March, higher
elevation snow ranges mostly between 120 to 160 percent of median for
early April.

April-July runoff volumes in the San Juan Basin are expected to range from
near average to 130 percent of average.

Specific peak flow forecasts are available on the  Colorado Basin River Forecast
Center website at:  https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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