290
FNUS53 KAPX 071941
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
341 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...Showers and embedded thunder tonight...

.DISCUSSION...
Rain showers will continue to move into the region this evening
and into the overnight hours. Embedded thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly across northern lower Michigan. Winds shift from
the southwest tonight to the west and then northwest Wednesday and
will be breezy at times. Precipitation on Wednesday will diminish
during the afternoon hours. Another chance for rain showers on
Thursday, mainly along and south of M-32. Min humidity will remain
above critical through much of this week, values in the 40s and
50s, decreasing on Friday into the 30s across interior northern
lower.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-080830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
341 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Scattered
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (68).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the south
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.31- 0.97 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms until 1200,
                    then isolated rain showers.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......37 percent wetter...except 44 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (368).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.21 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (94).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (961).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-080830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
341 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Scattered
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 10 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.81 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200Isolated rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......30 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (833).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.20 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (133).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....54-59...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (594).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.24 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-080830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
341 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Scattered
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (55).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.31- 0.75 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (464).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (144).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (836).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.12 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-080830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
341 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and scattered thunderstorms until 2400,
                    then scattered rain showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.29- 0.54 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (652).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (144).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (799).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.22 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-080830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
341 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    scattered rain showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (56).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.50 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1100).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (216).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (735).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.25 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JLD