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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FNUS72 KFFC 250929
FWSFFC
Spot Forecast for Little Pineknot Creek West...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning!
Mostly dry and warm conditions can be expected today at the burn
site. A weak frontal boundary to the north of the burn site will
continue southward today making for a tricky wind forecast.
Light/calm winds this morning look be primarily out of the NE at
less than 6 MPH. By the afternoon (after 1PM) winds may briefly
switch back to the NW less than 5 MPH before becoming more
variable in nature through the evening given lighter wind speeds.
20ft winds look to behave similarly to surface winds but may be
delayed by an hour or two when briefly switching back to the NW
during the afternoon. Transport wind speeds will range from 4 to 7
MPH through mid-day before decreasing to less than 6 MPH this
afternoon.
Forecast relative humidity around the time of ignition will range
from 80% to 90%, then lowering between 40% to 55% between
11AM-12PM, and between 30% to 35% this afternoon (after 2PM). We
will continue to monitor trends this morning given how 10hr fuels
faired yesterday. No Fire Danger Statement has been issued at this
time. The weak frontal boundary is slated to lift back northward
this evening, thus some sprinkles may be possible near/at the burn
site this evening.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............56 decreasing to 51 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph late
in the morning, then shifting to the north
around 6 mph late in the afternoon shifting to
the northwest late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 2 to 7 mph shifting to the west around 6
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (36100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 50 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10 0 1 1 1 2 11 11 13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............63 70 75 78 81 82 83 84 83
Dewpoint........58 58 57 54 53 49 50 50 49
RH..............84 66 53 43 38 32 31 31 30
20 FT wind dir..NE NE E NE NE N NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.6 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.9 3.8 4.6 6.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE N N NW W W
Transp wind spd.5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............6 21 30 37 46 48 48 48 50
Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 16 21 24 32 35 36 36 36
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Dewpoint............49 increasing to 53 early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
after 3 am becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the north
around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the east 5 to 6 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (700 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 25.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........12 13 8 7 15 31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............83 77 70 66 64 62
Dewpoint........49 54 54 53 53 53
RH..............30 45 57 62 66 71
20 ft wind......W 6 NW 3 E 3 E 3 E 3 E 5
20 ft wind gust.9 7 6 7 7 7
Mix hgt (ft)....3800 200 200 200 200 200
Transport wind..W 6 NW 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 E 6
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3
ADI.............25 2 2 2 2 2
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Dewpoint............53 increasing to 58 in the late morning and
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 10 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 16
mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (82300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 103 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 early in the morning, then
increasing to 25 late in the morning decreasing
to 20 early in the afternoon decreasing to 15
decreasing to 10 early in the afternoon
decreasing to 8.0 increasing to 9.0 late in the
afternoon increasing to 10.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........42 45 18 21 38 40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............61 62 73 81 84 85
Dewpoint........52 54 59 59 58 58
RH..............73 76 62 49 42 39
20 ft wind......E 3 E 3 SE 6 SE 8 SE 9 SE 10
20 ft wind gust.6 7 12 14 17 18
Mix hgt (ft)....200 200 2800 4400 6500 5700
Transport wind..E 5 E 5 SE 13 SE 16 S 15 S 15
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1
ADI.............3 5 44 84 103 86
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 39 59 82 72
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD
Ceiling (kft)...25 20 25 20 10 9.0
$$
Forecaster...Wyatt
Requested by...Mike Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412321.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.thompson@tnc.org
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