982
FNUS71 KRLX 072117
FWSRLX

Spot Forecast for Long Ridge Unit 45 Piles...USFS Wayne National Forest
National Weather Service Charleston WV
517 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A brief lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of Wednesday, but additional rounds of storms
are expected later Wednesday evening and Wednesday night, with
strong to severe storms possible. Wetting rains can also be
expected with these storms, and heavy downpours may create
localized flash flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy early (50-60 percent),
                    becoming mostly sunny (10-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
LVORI...............9 early, dropping to 1 after 11AM.
ADI.................6 early, becoming 40 to 50 after 11AM.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  57  55  46  38  29  19  10  13  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  65  67  70  72  75  78  80  83  84
RH..............100 99  88  73  64  55  46  42  38  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.8   10  8   10  10  11  12  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.5
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   6   9   10  9   8   7   7   8   8
LVORI...........9   7   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............6   12  25  42  46  41  38  41  50  50
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   3   3   4   4   5

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers in the evening. Showers likely with a
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent in the evening, becoming 70 percent
                    overnight
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 65 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2100, then 1-8 strikes.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph becoming around 6 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
LVORI...............2 in the evening, becoming 4 to 6 overnight.
ADI.................15 early, then 3 to 4.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........31  44  57  63  68  73  76  80  83  85  86  88
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   5   5   10  15  25  30  40  50  55  65
Chc of pcpn (%).5   5   15  20  30  30  40  50  50  60  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............83  81  76  72  69  66  65  64  64  63  62  62
RH..............41  45  55  66  76  78  83  86  87  89  91  93
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  7   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.............15  4   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Haines index....5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3



$$
Forecaster...FK
Requested by...Sam Daugherty
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413363.0/RLX
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL samuel.daugherty@usda.gov