Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 251247
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0647 MDT Wednesday, May 25, 2016

This forecast is for Wednesday, May 25, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 63.4 F/17.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1647 ft/min (8.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 22226 ft MSL (17387 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 78.0 F/26.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1015 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18564 ft MSL (13725 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 05/26..... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:53:25 / 20:28:43 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 35 min 18 sec (875 min 18 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:11:15 MDT... 71.99 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/25/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 10867 ft MSL (6028 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14656 ft MSL (9817 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17155 ft MSL (12316 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.3
K index......................... +16.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -57.4 -71.3   230   47   24   3.2   1.8  103.4 218.2    44.6      M    M
 45000  -50.6 -59.1   210   44   23   6.3   3.4   90.1 194.2    39.5      M    M
 40000  -48.6 -55.5   225   42   21   3.8   2.1   70.3 158.5    29.3      M    M
 38000  -49.8 -57.6   235   44   23   1.6   0.9   59.7 139.5    22.9      M    M
 36000  -49.1 -56.4   235   53   27  -6.6  -3.6   52.1 125.8    18.3      M    M
 34000  -51.1 -60.0   245   54   28   5.3   2.9   39.8 103.6    10.1      M    M
 32000  -49.2 -56.6   240   69   35   4.8   2.6   34.2  93.6     6.3      M    M
 30000  -44.9 -48.8   235   61   31   8.4   4.6   32.1  89.8     4.9      M    M
 29000  -42.4 -44.3   235   60   31   8.5   4.7   31.6  88.9     4.6      M    M
 28000  -39.9 -39.8   235   59   30   8.2   4.5   31.0  87.8     4.2      M    M
 27000  -37.6 -35.7   240   57   30   3.4   1.8   30.2  86.3     3.6      M    M
 26000  -36.4 -33.5   240   56   29   7.5   4.1   28.0  82.4     1.9      M    M
 25000  -33.9 -29.0   240   55   28   9.4   5.1   27.6  81.6     1.6      M    M
 24000  -31.1 -24.0   240   56   29   8.7   4.7   27.4  81.4     1.4      M    M
 23000  -28.4 -19.1   240   54   28   7.5   4.1   27.1  80.8     1.2      M    M
 22000  -26.9 -16.4   240   51   26   6.4   3.5   25.4  77.7    -0.2   1636  8.3
 21000  -24.5 -12.1   235   49   25   8.2   4.5   24.8  76.6    -0.7   1533  7.8
 20000  -21.9  -7.4   235   46   24   8.2   4.5   24.3  75.8    -1.1   1426  7.2
 19500  -20.9  -5.6   235   45   23   5.4   2.9   23.7  74.7    -1.6   1382  7.0
 19000  -20.1  -4.2   230   43   22   5.6   3.1   23.0  73.4    -2.2   1342  6.8
 18500  -19.0  -2.2   230   40   20   3.4   1.9   21.7  71.1    -3.4   1288  6.5
 18000  -18.5  -1.3   235   38   19   5.7   3.1   20.7  69.2    -4.4   1259  6.4
 17500  -17.3   0.9   230   36   19   8.7   4.8   20.4  68.7    -4.7   1208  6.1
 17000  -16.0   3.2   220   35   18   8.8   4.8   20.2  68.4    -4.9   1155  5.9
 16500  -14.8   5.4   215   35   18   8.9   4.9   20.1  68.1    -5.1   1101  5.6
 16000  -13.4   7.9   210   35   18   9.4   5.1   20.0  68.0    -5.2   1046  5.3
 15500  -12.0  10.4   215   33   17   9.4   5.1   19.9  67.8    -5.3    989  5.0
 15000  -10.6  12.9   215   31   16   8.8   4.8   19.8  67.7    -5.4    933  4.7
 14500   -9.4  15.1   220   29   15   8.6   4.7   19.6  67.3    -5.6    881  4.5
 14000   -8.1  17.4   225   28   14   8.6   4.7   19.5  67.0    -5.9    828  4.2
 13500   -6.8  19.8   230   26   13   8.6   4.7   19.2  66.6    -6.1    775  3.9
 13000   -5.6  21.9   235   24   12   8.6   4.7   19.0  66.3    -6.4    722  3.7
 12500   -4.3  24.3   240   22   12   8.6   4.7   18.9  66.0    -6.6    670  3.4
 12000   -3.0  26.6   245   21   11   8.9   4.9   18.7  65.7    -6.8    616  3.1
 11500   -1.7  28.9   250   19   10   8.9   4.9   18.6  65.4    -7.0    561  2.9
 11000   -0.3  31.5   255   18    9   8.9   4.9   18.4  65.1    -7.1    506  2.6
 10500    1.0  33.8   265   17    9   8.9   4.9   18.3  64.9    -7.3    451  2.3
 10250    1.7  35.1   270   16    8   9.0   5.0   18.2  64.8    -7.3    424  2.2
 10000    2.4  36.3   270   14    7   9.5   5.2   18.2  64.8    -7.4    396  2.0
  9750    3.1  37.6   270   14    7   9.6   5.3   18.2  64.7    -7.4    367  1.9
  9500    3.8  38.8   265   14    7   9.6   5.3   18.2  64.7    -7.5    338  1.7
  9250    4.5  40.1   265   15    8   8.7   4.8   18.2  64.7    -7.5    310  1.6
  9000    5.1  41.2   260   15    8   8.0   4.4   18.0  64.5    -7.6    284  1.4
  8750    5.7  42.3   260   16    8   8.2   4.5   17.9  64.2    -7.8    259  1.3
  8500    6.3  43.3   260   16    8   8.1   4.5   17.8  64.0    -7.9    234  1.2
  8250    6.9  44.4   260   17    9   8.1   4.5   17.7  63.8    -8.1    208  1.1
  8000    7.5  45.5   260   18    9   8.1   4.5   17.6  63.6    -8.2    183  0.9
  7750    8.1  46.6   260   17    9   8.1   4.5   17.4  63.4    -8.4    158  0.8
  7500    8.7  47.7   255   16    8   8.1   4.5   17.3  63.2    -8.5    133  0.7
  7250    9.3  48.7   250   14    7   8.2   4.5   17.2  62.9    -8.7    107  0.5
  7000    9.9  49.8   245   13    7   8.2   4.5   17.1  62.7    -8.9     82  0.4
  6750   10.5  50.9   245   11    6   8.2   4.5   16.9  62.5    -9.0     57  0.3
  6500   11.0  51.8   240    8    4   8.2   4.5   16.8  62.3    -9.2     32  0.2
  6250   11.6  52.9   235    6    3   8.2   4.5   16.7  62.0    -9.3      6  0.0
  6000   12.2  54.0   220    4    2   7.9   4.3   16.6  61.8    -9.5      M    M
  5750   12.8  55.0   200    2    1   9.1   5.0   16.4  61.6    -9.7      M    M
  5500   13.4  56.1   160    1    0   4.6   2.5   16.3  61.4    -9.8      M    M
  5250   13.2  55.8   085    1    1 -12.4  -6.8   15.3  59.6   -10.8      M    M
  5000   11.7  53.1   065    3    1 -27.4 -15.0   13.0  55.4   -13.1      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/25/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       05/25/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... -0.3  LI... +275.7              | K index... +6.0  LI... +274.6
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.6 -64.5  220  29 15   2.1   1.2 | -53.5 -64.3  220  24 12   1.9   1.1
 45000 -50.6 -59.1  225  38 19   0.2   0.1 | -50.9 -59.6  230  35 18  -0.8  -0.5
 40000 -50.1 -58.2  235  48 25   0.3   0.2 | -51.8 -61.2  240  51 26  -0.6  -0.3
 38000 -50.4 -58.7  240  54 28  -1.1  -0.6 | -51.9 -61.4  240  57 29   0.1   0.0
 36000 -51.1 -60.0  245  61 32  -1.1  -0.6 | -51.8 -61.2  240  63 33   0.1   0.0
 34000 -50.8 -59.4  245  67 34   4.9   2.7 | -51.1 -60.0  240  67 34   4.9   2.7
 32000 -47.8 -54.0  245  63 32   5.1   2.8 | -48.0 -54.4  240  63 33   5.0   2.7
 30000 -44.2 -47.6  245  59 30   7.8   4.3 | -44.6 -48.3  245  59 30   8.0   4.4
 29000 -41.9 -43.4  245  57 29   7.9   4.3 | -42.1 -43.8  245  56 29   8.1   4.5
 28000 -39.5 -39.1  245  54 28   7.9   4.3 | -39.7 -39.5  245  53 27   8.1   4.5
 27000 -37.1 -34.8  245  52 27   7.5   4.1 | -36.7 -34.1  245  50 26   8.1   4.5
 26000 -34.9 -30.8  245  51 26   7.3   4.0 | -34.2 -29.6  245  47 24   8.1   4.5
 25000 -32.8 -27.0  245  49 25   7.3   4.0 | -31.8 -25.2  245  44 23   8.1   4.5
 24000 -30.6 -23.1  245  47 24   7.3   4.0 | -29.4 -20.9  245  42 22   7.1   3.9
 23000 -28.4 -19.1  245  46 24   7.4   4.1 | -27.4 -17.3  245  43 22   6.9   3.8
 22000 -26.2 -15.2  245  45 23   7.4   4.1 | -25.3 -13.5  245  43 22   6.9   3.8
 21000 -23.9 -11.0  245  44 23   7.8   4.3 | -23.2  -9.8  245  43 22   8.1   4.5
 20000 -21.5  -6.7  245  43 22   7.9   4.3 | -20.8  -5.4  250  41 21   8.0   4.4
 19500 -20.4  -4.7  245  42 22   7.9   4.3 | -19.6  -3.3  250  40 21   8.0   4.4
 19000 -19.2  -2.6  245  42 21   7.9   4.3 | -18.4  -1.1  250  39 20   8.2   4.5
 18500 -18.0  -0.4  245  41 21   7.5   4.1 | -17.2   1.0  250  39 20   6.8   3.7
 18000 -16.9   1.6  245  40 21   7.3   4.0 | -16.2   2.8  250  38 20   6.8   3.8
 17500 -15.8   3.6  245  40 20   7.4   4.0 | -15.2   4.6  250  38 20   7.0   3.8
 17000 -14.7   5.5  245  39 20   7.7   4.2 | -14.1   6.6  250  37 19   7.2   3.9
 16500 -13.5   7.7  245  39 20   7.7   4.2 | -13.0   8.6  250  37 19   7.2   3.9
 16000 -12.4   9.7  250  38 20   7.7   4.2 | -11.9  10.6  245  36 19   7.7   4.2
 15500 -10.6  12.9  250  35 18   7.6   4.2 | -10.8  12.6  245  35 18   7.7   4.2
 15000  -9.7  14.5  250  33 17   5.5   3.0 |  -9.7  14.5  245  34 18   6.7   3.7
 14500  -8.8  16.2  245  30 16   5.6   3.1 |  -8.8  16.2  245  32 17   6.7   3.7
 14000  -7.9  17.8  245  28 14   6.7   3.7 |  -7.8  18.0  245  30 15   6.7   3.7
 13500  -7.0  19.4  245  25 13   6.6   3.6 |  -6.9  19.6  240  27 14   6.9   3.8
 13000  -5.9  21.4  245  23 12   7.9   4.4 |  -5.3  22.5  235  23 12   8.8   4.8
 12500  -4.8  23.4  240  22 11   8.0   4.4 |  -4.1  24.6  230  21 11   8.6   4.7
 12000  -3.6  25.5  240  21 11   8.7   4.8 |  -2.8  27.0  230  19 10   8.7   4.8
 11500  -2.3  27.9  235  20 10   8.8   4.8 |  -1.5  29.3  225  17  9   8.7   4.8
 11000  -1.0  30.2  235  19 10   9.2   5.0 |  -0.2  31.6  220  15  8   8.4   4.6
 10500   0.4  32.7  235  19 10  10.1   5.5 |   1.0  33.8  220  13  7   9.0   4.9
 10250   1.1  34.0  235  18  9   5.9   3.2 |   1.6  34.9  220  12  6   6.2   3.4
 10000   1.4  34.5  235  18  9   7.1   3.9 |   2.0  35.6  220  11  6   7.0   3.9
  9750   2.2  36.0  230  17  9  11.9   6.5 |   2.7  36.9  220  10  5  10.5   5.8
  9500   3.0  37.4  230  17  9  11.3   6.2 |   3.5  38.3  220   9  5   9.6   5.3
  9250   3.8  38.8  230  16  8   8.9   4.9 |   4.2  39.6  220   8  4   8.9   4.9
  9000   4.3  39.7  230  15  8   7.2   4.0 |   4.8  40.6  220   8  4   9.4   5.1
  8750   5.0  41.0  230  15  8   8.9   4.9 |   5.6  42.1  225   8  4  10.5   5.7
  8500   5.6  42.1  230  14  7   8.3   4.6 |   6.3  43.3  225   7  4  10.2   5.6
  8250   6.2  43.2  230  13  7   7.2   4.0 |   7.1  44.8  225   7  4  10.2   5.6
  8000   6.7  44.1  225  12  6   6.4   3.5 |   7.8  46.0  225   7  4  10.1   5.5
  7750   7.2  45.0  225  11  6   6.9   3.8 |   8.6  47.5  225   7  4  10.0   5.5
  7500   7.7  45.9  220  11  6   6.3   3.4 |   9.3  48.7  225   7  4   9.9   5.4
  7250   8.1  46.6  215  10  5   5.5   3.0 |  10.1  50.2  230   7  4   9.8   5.4
  7000   8.5  47.3  210  10  5   5.1   2.8 |  10.8  51.4  230   7  4   9.8   5.4
  6750   8.8  47.8  200   9  5   4.6   2.5 |  11.5  52.7  230   7  3  10.0   5.5
  6500   9.2  48.6  190   9  5   7.7   4.2 |  12.3  54.1  230   7  3  10.6   5.8
  6250  10.0  50.0  190   9  4  10.5   5.8 |  13.1  55.6  230   6  3  11.3   6.2
  6000  10.7  51.3  185   8  4   8.9   4.9 |  13.9  57.0  230   6  3  10.1   5.5
  5750  11.3  52.3  185   8  4   9.4   5.1 |  14.7  58.5  235   6  3  12.5   6.8
  5500  12.1  53.8  185   7  4  11.2   6.1 |  15.8  60.4  235   6  3  16.5   9.1
  5250  12.9  55.2  190   7  4  10.9   6.0 |  17.0  62.6  235   6  3  14.8   8.1
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           05/25/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       05/25/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +18.2  LI... +273.6             | K index... +18.9  LI... +273.1
CAPE... +0.8  CIN... -11.7                 | CAPE... +12.7  CIN... -9.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.4 -64.1  215  27 14   1.6   0.9 | -53.9 -65.0  215  22 11   1.4   0.8
 45000 -51.2 -60.2  230  28 15  -1.0  -0.5 | -52.0 -61.6  225  24 12  -0.8  -0.5
 40000 -52.4 -62.3  240  46 23  -0.7  -0.4 | -52.9 -63.2  240  39 20  -0.6  -0.3
 38000 -52.2 -62.0  240  51 26   0.7   0.4 | -52.8 -63.0  240  43 22   0.5   0.3
 36000 -51.8 -61.2  240  56 29   0.7   0.4 | -52.5 -62.5  245  45 23   0.5   0.3
 34000 -50.7 -59.3  240  59 30   4.8   2.6 | -51.4 -60.5  245  45 23   5.5   3.0
 32000 -47.8 -54.0  240  56 29   4.9   2.7 | -48.0 -54.4  245  42 22   5.7   3.1
 30000 -44.4 -47.9  240  52 27   7.5   4.1 | -44.2 -47.6  250  40 20   7.7   4.2
 29000 -42.1 -43.8  245  49 25   7.6   4.2 | -41.9 -43.4  250  38 20   7.8   4.3
 28000 -39.2 -38.6  245  46 24   7.6   4.2 | -39.6 -39.3  250  37 19   7.8   4.3
 27000 -36.9 -34.4  245  43 22   8.2   4.5 | -36.7 -34.1  250  35 18   7.7   4.2
 26000 -34.5 -30.1  245  42 22   8.1   4.5 | -34.4 -29.9  250  35 18   7.7   4.2
 25000 -32.1 -25.8  245  41 21   8.1   4.5 | -32.1 -25.8  245  35 18   7.7   4.2
 24000 -29.7 -21.5  245  40 21   7.4   4.0 | -29.7 -21.5  245  35 18   7.8   4.3
 23000 -27.5 -17.5  250  42 21   7.3   4.0 | -27.4 -17.3  245  35 18   7.9   4.3
 22000 -25.3 -13.5  250  43 22   7.3   4.0 | -25.0 -13.0  245  35 18   7.9   4.3
 21000 -23.1  -9.6  250  43 22   8.2   4.5 | -22.7  -8.9  245  35 18   7.8   4.3
 20000 -20.6  -5.1  250  40 20   8.1   4.5 | -20.4  -4.7  245  34 18   7.8   4.3
 19500 -19.4  -2.9  250  38 20   8.1   4.5 | -19.2  -2.6  245  34 17   7.8   4.3
 19000 -18.2  -0.8  245  36 19   8.2   4.5 | -18.0  -0.4  245  33 17   7.7   4.2
 18500 -17.0   1.4  245  35 18   7.5   4.1 | -16.8   1.8  245  33 17   9.0   4.9
 18000 -15.9   3.4  245  35 18   7.6   4.2 | -15.5   4.1  245  33 17   9.0   4.9
 17500 -14.8   5.4  245  34 18   7.8   4.3 | -14.2   6.4  245  32 17   9.1   5.0
 17000 -13.6   7.5  245  33 17   8.0   4.4 | -12.9   8.8  245  30 16   9.3   5.1
 16500 -12.4   9.7  245  32 16   8.1   4.5 | -11.5  11.3  240  29 15   9.3   5.1
 16000 -11.2  11.8  240  30 16   8.8   4.8 | -10.2  13.6  240  27 14   9.1   5.0
 15500  -9.9  14.2  240  29 15   8.8   4.8 |  -8.9  16.0  235  25 13   9.2   5.1
 15000  -8.7  16.3  240  27 14   8.4   4.6 |  -7.5  18.5  235  23 12   9.0   5.0
 14500  -7.5  18.5  235  26 13   8.5   4.6 |  -6.2  20.8  230  21 11   9.0   5.0
 14000  -6.2  20.8  230  24 12   8.7   4.8 |  -4.9  23.2  230  19 10   9.1   5.0
 13500  -4.3  24.3  230  22 11   8.8   4.8 |  -3.5  25.7  225  18  9   9.1   5.0
 13000  -3.0  26.6  225  20 10   8.6   4.7 |  -1.5  29.3  225  16  8   8.5   4.7
 12500  -1.7  28.9  220  18  9   8.6   4.7 |  -0.2  31.6  220  15  8   8.6   4.7
 12000  -0.5  31.1  220  16  8   8.3   4.5 |   1.0  33.8  220  13  7   8.2   4.5
 11500   0.8  33.4  215  15  8   8.5   4.6 |   2.3  36.1  215  12  6   8.4   4.6
 11000   1.9  35.4  210  13  7   6.2   3.4 |   3.4  38.1  210  11  6   6.9   3.8
 10500   2.8  37.0  210  11  6   5.5   3.0 |   4.5  40.1  210  10  5   6.9   3.8
 10250   3.3  37.9  210  10  5   9.4   5.2 |   5.0  41.0  205  10  5   9.6   5.3
 10000   4.1  39.4  210   9  5  10.7   5.9 |   5.8  42.4  205   9  5   9.3   5.1
  9750   4.7  40.5  215   8  4   7.6   4.2 |   6.4  43.5  205   8  4   6.9   3.8
  9500   5.4  41.7  215   7  4   8.4   4.6 |   6.9  44.4  205   7  4   7.9   4.3
  9250   6.0  42.8  220   6  3   8.3   4.6 |   7.5  45.5  200   7  3   6.3   3.4
  9000   6.6  43.9  225   6  3   9.8   5.4 |   7.9  46.2  205   5  3   6.5   3.5
  8750   7.4  45.3  225   6  3  10.6   5.8 |   8.5  47.3  205   5  2   8.0   4.4
  8500   8.2  46.8  225   6  3  10.3   5.7 |   9.0  48.2  210   4  2   7.7   4.2
  8250   8.9  48.0  225   6  3  10.6   5.8 |   9.6  49.3  215   3  2   8.4   4.6
  8000   9.7  49.5  230   5  3  10.0   5.5 |  10.3  50.5  225   3  1   9.3   5.1
  7750  10.5  50.9  230   5  3   9.4   5.2 |  11.0  51.8  230   3  1   9.6   5.3
  7500  11.2  52.2  230   5  3   9.7   5.3 |  11.7  53.1  235   3  1   9.7   5.3
  7250  11.9  53.4  235   5  3  10.1   5.5 |  12.4  54.3  240   3  1  10.1   5.6
  7000  12.7  54.9  235   5  3  10.0   5.5 |  13.2  55.8  245   3  1  10.1   5.5
  6750  13.4  56.1  235   5  3   9.7   5.3 |  13.9  57.0  245   3  1   9.6   5.2
  6500  14.1  57.4  235   5  3  10.6   5.8 |  14.6  58.3  245   3  1  10.2   5.6
  6250  15.0  59.0  235   5  3  11.6   6.4 |  15.4  59.7  250   3  2  11.1   6.1
  6000  15.8  60.4  240   5  3  10.4   5.7 |  16.3  61.3  250   3  2  10.3   5.7
  5750  16.6  61.9  240   5  3  11.9   6.5 |  17.0  62.6  250   3  2   9.7   5.3
  5500  17.6  63.7  240   5  3  15.8   8.6 |  17.7  63.9  255   3  2  10.6   5.8
  5250  18.8  65.8  245   5  3  15.7   8.6 |  18.6  65.5  255   3  2  11.6   6.4
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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