Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 220603
SWODY2
SPC AC 220602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND/NERN
SD/WRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST DAY 2...AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH SHIFTS GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.  MEANWHILE...WITH A SECOND TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SWD
ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC/U.S. E COAST...AN INTERVENING RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHARPEN WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EVOLVING SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE PLAINS...AS A SURFACE CYCLONE SHIFTS NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
A TRAILING FRONT DEVELOPS/SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...A RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT
PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

...PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE ATTM...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
VARIATION IN EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  ONGOING
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FURTHER
COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO -- PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO AIRMASS
QUALITY AND FAVORED AREAS OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM SECTOR.

FROM A BROAD PERSPECTIVE...WITH STRONGER FLOW FIELD ALOFT SPREADING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING AS THIS
STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL CONUS.  AS SUCH -- WILL
INITIATE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND ADJACENT
WRN MN...WHERE SOME CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION
OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND AMPLE SHEAR ALOFT SHOULD EXIST.

..GOSS.. 08/22/2014



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