584
FXUS64 KCRP 070351
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1051 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents and Coastal Flood Advisory in effect
  through Tuesday morning.

Generally quiet weather conditions can be expected through the
short-term period, although cannot fully rule out a stray shower.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft and a few ripples in the upper level flow
could combine with enough available moisture to spark a few
showers over the region on Tuesday, mainly out west. However, most
of the moisture will be at the lower levels with dry air aloft and
a strong cap building. Therefore, have maintained PoPs below a
10% and silent. Having said that, these conditions are more
optimal for patchy fog formation overnight, both tonight and
Tuesday night when the dewpoint depression drops.

Warmer temperatures are in store for tomorrow, with highs ranging
from the mid 80s along the coast to near 100 degrees over portions
of the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. If we add to this
dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values could max out at or
around 110 degrees briefly in the afternoon. A Heat Advisory is
not in effect at this moment, as these conditions are expected to
be localized and of a short duration. But, we will continue to
closely monitor it on Tuesday in case an Advisory is required.
Aside from this, expect overnight lows to range in the 70s.

A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High risk of rip currents has been
issued for the high tide cycle tonight along the Gulf-facing
beaches of the Middle Texas Coast. Current observations at buoy
42019 indicate swell heights at 4 to 5 feet with swell periods
between 7 and 8 seconds. Winds are forecast to remain below 15
knots offshore out of the southeast, but the high swells and
periods could lead to minor coastal flooding and an increase risk
of rip currents along area beaches, mainly south of Port Aransas.
These conditions are forecast to improve tomorrow as winds become
more southerly, but a Moderate risk of rip currents is likely to
persist.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to major HeatRisk Wednesday and Thursday.

- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return
  temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

The long term forecast continues to be on track with very warm
temperatures. Onshore flow will keep moisture streaming into the
area which, combined with the very warm temperatures, will lead to
heat index values of 100 across most of the area to near 112 across
the inland Coastal Bend. Heat advisories will likely be needed.

Good news, though! While the Summer pattern has started, we get to
hold on to a little bit of Spring this weekend. A cold front will
move across the area Thursday night into Friday, leading to cooler
(around 10 degrees cooler!) temperatures Friday and into the
weekend. The cold front looks like it will stall over the area
Friday and Saturday, leading to a low (15-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. We`ll keep our fingers crossed
that we can finally see some rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The cloud cover is moving back into the region with the clouds at
the coast, with IFR/MVFR CIGs near the coast (NGP) and beginning
to move in (few009 at CRP 04Z). The clouds will continue to move
inland and will get to LRD and COT somewhere around 08z-10z. Will
expect IFR CIGs through the morning before the clearing out again
around 15 or 16z. CIGs will remain VFR with occasional MVFR
through 00z, and then the clouds will move back into the forecast
area, and spread back to the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through Wednesday
night. Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions can be
expected tonight through Tuesday night, mainly over the bays and
nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Winds will diminish
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to
the northeast Friday and Saturday, then to the east on Sunday.
There is a 15 to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  90  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          75  90  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            75 101  76 107 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             74  95  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  86  77  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           75  98  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        76  94  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  87  78  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JSL/86