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000
FXUS64 KCRP 091148
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Severe thunderstorm potential Today. Cold Front Tonight.

▶ Moderate to High chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms
overnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning

▶ High chance of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon/evening for the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains and
Brush Country. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 10 AM
through 11 PM Wednesday.

▶ Minor Coastal Flooding possible today during times of high tide

A mid-level low pressure system with several embedded shortwaves is
located near the AZ/NM/MX border this morning and is expected to
translate eastward through the period ending near the eastern
TX/OK border by Wednesday evening. Available CAPE will be around
1,500-2,000 J/kg and PWAT`s around 1.50-1.80". Resulting in large
scale ascent from an upper level low, positive tilted trough,
strong upper-level jet, deep moisture profile providing the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday through
Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile a frontal boundary will slide across our CWA Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning providing surface lift. As a result, SPC
has most of South Texas under a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for
severe thunderstorms except for extreme southern and western
locales that are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5). Main
hazard is Large Hail of at least 1.0" (15% probability within 25
miles of a point), 2.0"+ Hail (10% probability within 25 miles of
a point) across northern counties, and damaging wind (15%
probability within 25 miles of a point) across northern/eastern
counties, isolated tornadoes (2% probability within 25 miles of a
point) across northern/eastern counties. Timing of strong/severe
convection 03-08z Wednesday (with the frontal boundary moving
across west portions of S. TX this afternoon before stalling, then
moves offshore by 08z Wednesday).

In addition to FROPA, can expect a high chance for Elevated to
Critical Fire Wx conditions Wednesday afternoon across most of the
region as humidity drops and winds increase behind the front. A
Wind Advisory will likely be needed across much of S. TX tomorrow
afternoon.

P-ETSS guidance is suggesting seas up to around 1.5 ft MSL today
with elevated swell and long periods of 8-9 seconds combined with
moderate southeasterly flow will likely result in Minor Coastal
flooding during time of high tide today, but the threat will
diminish this evening as winds relax and especially tomorrow after
the front moves offshore resulting in offshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Key Message:

▶ High chance of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
lingers into Wednesday evening for the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains
and Brush Country. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 10 AM
through 11 PM Wednesday.

Windy and dry conditions will persist Wednesday night, with critical
fire weather conditions likely to linger, therefore, a Fire Weather
Watch is currently in effect from 10 AM through 11 PM Wednesday
evening. Winds will diminish overnight as surface high pressure
settles in over South Texas, bringing cooler overnight temperatures.
By Thursday, a mid-level ridge will build over the area and persist
into early next week. Temperatures will warm through the weekend,
reaching into the mid 80s and upper 90s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions currently across terminals. These conditions
are expected to remain through early Tuesday morning, accompanied
by windy conditions ahead of a cold front. VFR conditions return
for this afternoon. Chances for rain and some thunderstorm
activity is limited today but increases tonight. Some storms may
become strong to severe overnight. Otherwise expect MVFR/IFR
ceilings through Wednesday morning but skies should clear after
the front moves through Wednesday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds will diminish to moderate levels
today but seas remain elevated 5-7 ft. Small Craft Advisory
conditions generally expected to continue through tomorrow in
response to an upper- level disturbance and an attendant cold
front approaching the region from the Desert Southwest. Winds
veer offshore behind the front. This disturbance will lead to
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight tonight, with the
potential for some of those storms to be strong to severe. The
cold front will move off the coast Wednesday morning with strong
northwest winds developing in its wake. Offshore winds relax on
Thursday and become onshore again on Friday. Weak to moderate
onshore flow is anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Key Message - Critical to Elevated Fire Weather conditions are
expected Wednesday through Wednesday Evening. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday through 11 PM Wednesday evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight as a
cold front moves into the area. Behind the cold front, windy and dry
conditions will develop Wednesday with minimum RH values dropping
below 30% across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains and
less than 40% over the Victoria Crossroads area. This, when combined
with 20 foot winds around 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph, will
result in critical to elevated fire weather conditions. Winds
weaken Thursday, then become onshore Friday with low level
humidity values increasing over the weekend. No additional Fire
Weather threats are anticipated through the remainder of the
extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  64  85  57 /  10  60   0   0
Victoria          85  64  79  54 /  20  80  10   0
Laredo            99  63  86  57 /   0  50   0   0
Alice             96  63  86  55 /  10  60   0   0
Rockport          82  66  82  60 /  10  70   0   0
Cotulla           97  60  85  54 /  20  50   0   0
Kingsville        94  63  85  56 /  10  50   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  68  84  63 /  10  70   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ229>231-239>243-342-343-442-443.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ250-
     255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...BF/80