Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 280507
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1207 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Pretty quiet in the short term as the mid-level trough that brought
a few showers this morning exits the region allowing mid-level
ridging to build in. Surface ridging will drift from over the Texas
to over the southeast US over the next 24 hours and bring a more
onshore flow by late in the day Thursday. Above the surface will
remain dry though, so will have very limited clouds from tonight
through tomorrow night. The decreasing clouds, not yet onshore flow
and high pressure overhead will allow for temperatures to drop into
the mid 40s north and into the upper 40s and lower 50s south. Expect
temperatures tomorrow to be 5-10 degreed warmer for a lot of the
area, in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the Coastal Plains and
in the mid 80s west. Not as cool tomorrow night, but still seasonal
in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Elevated Fire Weather western portions of S TX Friday afternoon.
- Temperatures around 100 across the Brush Country Monday.
- Cold front Tuesday.

Mid/upper level ridging will lead to a warming trend over the
weekend with temperatures possibly reaching triple digits across the
Brush Country by Monday. NBM probabilities indicate a medium (40-
50%) chance of temperatures at or above 100 across the western CWA.
Models indicate a long wave trough will move toward TX by the end of
the weekend, and will help push a cold front across S TX late Monday
night into Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures to the area.

Precipitation is not expected through the weekend, but sufficient
moisture may be available to bring a slight chance (<20%) of showers
along and behind the Tuesday cold front, mainly across the northern
tier of the CWA. This is in response to the upper low nearing the
region and ejecting a short wave across south central TX. Thus,
chances are better across the Hill Country and Houston`s area.
However, if the upper level energy is farther south, then rain
chances may be higher for S TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure and dry conditions will produce VFR CIGs and VSBYs.
Winds will remain light overnight, and Thursday morning. Thursday
afternoon the winds will increase to moderate levels and continue
into the evening. Winds will diminish a bit as we approach
06z/Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Strong south to southeast winds are expected across the bays and
nearshore waters south of Port Aransas Friday afternoon, then across
the offshore waters Friday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed. South to southeast winds will vary between weak to
moderate and moderate over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Friday afternoon, southerly 20ft winds are expected to strengthen to
15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to decrease to 25-
35% across the Brush Country. The combination of drier conditions
and breezy winds may lead to a brief period of elevated fire
weather conditions across the Brush Country Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, fire weather concerns will be low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    53  80  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          49  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            54  85  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             51  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          60  76  65  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           52  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        52  83  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       60  75  66  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...JSL/86


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