Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FGUS74 KCRP 171707
ESFCRP
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1207 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILSTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE ARANSAS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS...


THE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR
THE ARANSAS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE: THE ARANSAS RIVER AT SKIDMORE HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 13 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SKIDMORE
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 7.1 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014


LOCATION      FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------      ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
ARANSAS RIVER
 SKIDMORE       13.0   1.0  1.9  4.2  5.2  7.1  8.5 10.7 14.2 30.0


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?CRP
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).


LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH


$$




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