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000
FXUS61 KCTP 192116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE SE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL SET
IN. MAINLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM NOW AND THEN AFTER SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF THE
TIME IT WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN LINE WITH THE START OF SUMMER.
THE OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH FAIR WX CU CLOUD STREETS FORMING ALONG
THE NERLY SHEAR AXIS. DRIER AMS AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN.

H5 HGTS WILL START TO RISE AS THE MEAN NERN CONUS TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. HIGH PRES WILL BRING FAIR WX TO THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL.

RECEIVED SEVERAL OBSERVER REPORTS EARLIER THIS MORNING OF MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WITH CLR
SKIES AND LOW PWATS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WHERE NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THE GFS-BASED MAV GUID HAS 37F FOR BFD SUGGESTING SOME PATCHY
FROST MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS THE LOWEST MOS GUID WHEN
COMPARED AGAINST THE NAM/MET...EC/ECM AND IS ON THE LOW END OF
THE 18/00Z ECENS MEMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. H5
HGTS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE
RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS AND LLVL
MSTR/DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY LATER THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARMER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE FIRST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER /SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS/. MDL
DATA SUGGESTS ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE N-CNTRL APPALCHNS INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CNTRL
RIDGES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY RAIN-
FREE. CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE A LIMITING/NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
TERRAIN-INDUCED TSTMS LATER FRI AFT. LEFT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW.

NRN ROCKIES 500MB TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE S-CNTRL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE AND EXPAND WWD BACK ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COVERING THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CONUS...THE
JET STREAM WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH
IS WHERE IT SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE NORTH OF PA...BUT A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SAT...AS ANY WEAK SYSTEM COULD
TOUCH OFF SOME...GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND TERRAIN FEATURES.

WHILE TEMPS COME UP...DEWPOINTS REALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANYTHING ABNORMAL. LOOKING AT MAINLY TEMPS BTWN 80-85F ACRS THE
ALLEGHENIES AND 85-90F E OF THE MTNS IN THE CNTRL RIDGES AND SUSQ
VLY. THE MAIN AREA OF EXTREME CONDITIONS WILL BE FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR INTO FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUN AND MON...
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...NO SIG WX.

SUN-MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 104 AM EDT ON FRIDAY JUNE 21ST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
CLIMATE...