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000
FXUS61 KCTP 260328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING COOL BUT FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
BUT WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING IR LOOP SHOWING WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRATOCU DECK ASSOC
WITH UPPER LOW JUST SKIRTING SULLIVAN COUNTY. HOWEVER...AS LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...EXPECT EVEN SULLIVAN CO TO BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...KEEPING AN ACTIVE
NW BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE CHC OF ANY
FROST AND TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE RESULTING MIXING.

CURRENT OBS ARE ARND 10F DEG WARMER THAN LAST EVENING AND WINDS
JUST AS STRONG...SO CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE
W MTNS IS WANING A BIT. LATEST HI-RES NAM...LAMP GUIDANCE AND
SREF/GEFS...INDICATE THE BEST CHC OF A FREEZE WILL BE OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE W MTNS...WITH LITTLE CHC ACROSS THE MTNS
N OF IPT. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR N CLINTON AND
TIOGA CO EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND TEMPS ALOFT
MODERATE...AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. STILL EXPECT
SUNDAY TO BE A BREEZY DAY...AS DEEPENING BLYR CAUSES ALLOWS GUSTS
NR 20KTS TO MIX TO THE SFC BY AFTN. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 4C
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC HIGH MAY RESULT IN
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPS OF THIS COOL SNAP WITH FROST AND/OR
FREEZE WARNINGS POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESP ALONG OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.

WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS PA TUE INTO WED...BRINGING WITH IT OUR
WEEKLY BEST...ALBEIT STILL LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THOUGH JUST ABOUT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR A TSTORM ON WED WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD-
KIPT- KRDG. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF MUCH
MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOWS BY
WED MORN WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON WED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN AROUND THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BRINGING HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR ALL BY FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +16C. A
DOWNSIDE WILL BE WITH CENTRAL PA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS RISING HUMIDITY
ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.

DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SURGE IN MID LEVEL
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK AND WEAK CAP ON EDGE OF RIDGE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE TROUGH
OVER UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE 03Z TAFS.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A GUSTY NW WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT
WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TUE
INTO WED...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THU SHOULD BE DRY AND VERY WARM...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

THU...MAINLY VFR. SOME FOG AND HZ POSSIBLE EARLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD