Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS State College, PA
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 281917
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
317 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Carolina coast will track northeast and
out to sea today. High pressure will briefly build into
Pennsylvania tonight and Friday, then a weak area of low
pressure approaching from the midwest will pass across the
state Saturday. A more significant low is likely to track just
north of Pennsylvania through the Eastern Great Lakes early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Low clouds continue to skirt my southeastern counties invof of
very slow moving front drifting towards the eastern seaboard.
Some spotty light drizzle is possible but most areas should
remain dry through this evening.
A much drier northwest flow behind the cold front is bringing
brightening skies across western and central PA, but warm
advection aloft will continue to support a veil of high clouds
over these areas.
Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the
upper trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of
low pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially
come close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern
Somerset County. For now have left mentions out of the area, as
highest POPs remain south of the PA/MD border.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Thinking for Friday remains unchanged with large scale
subsidence behind the exiting trough resulting in sunny,
breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down model 850mb
temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected highs ranging
from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 50s
across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also support
wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday afternoon and
dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep mixing. Higher
fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire spread, despite
expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to around 30pct,
although some parts of far southern PA could fall into the 20s.
An active pattern is likely for the weekend and into the start
of April. The first system will bring showers to much of central
PA on Saturday wiht a quick tenth to quarter inch of rain
possible during the day on Saturday. Showers linger into
Saturday evening before tapering off.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sunday looks dry to start as a west-to-east oriented boundary
sags south of the Mason-Dixon Line. A wave of low pressure along
that boundary will lift back into Pennsylvania early next week,
bringing widespread rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday.
Zonal flow aloft often promotes seasonable temperatures, but
rain and clouds will likely result in temperatures trending a
bit below average for the start of April with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s.
For the second half of the week, ensemble guidance depicts a
deepening low pressure system moving into the northeast and
bombing out off the New England coast. This system is likely to
bring ample precipitation and strong winds. Current temperature
profiles indicate some snow potential at higher elevations in
the northern mountains and Laurels, but details remain highly
uncertain.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conds being enjoyed this afternoon central and west while
MVFR cigs cover far east/southeastern areas. Mainly VFR will
follow for later tonight and Friday as a weak sfc ridge of high
pressure builds over the Commonwealth. The is a low end
probability for a few periods of MVFR cigs redeveloping late
tonight at KJST and KBFD.
NW winds will increase tonight and Friday as sfc low strengthens
offshore. with likely gusts into the low to mid 20s. Borderline
LLWS at all TAF sites tonight with the base of 35KT NW winds
between 1.5 and 2 kft AGL. Leaning toward some mixing of the NW
wind to smooth out the vertical gradient of the wind profile and
create more of a turbulent low- level mechanical mixing profile
compared to true LLWS with a +/-20KT change over 200 FT in the
verticaL.
Outlook...
Fri...Patchy MVFR cigs possible early across the Western Mtns
of PA, otherwise VFR with a moderately gusty (20-25 mph) NW
winds.
Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry
weather Sunday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert