Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281917 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 317 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along the Carolina coast will track northeast and out to sea today. High pressure will briefly build into Pennsylvania tonight and Friday, then a weak area of low pressure approaching from the midwest will pass across the state Saturday. A more significant low is likely to track just north of Pennsylvania through the Eastern Great Lakes early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Low clouds continue to skirt my southeastern counties invof of very slow moving front drifting towards the eastern seaboard. Some spotty light drizzle is possible but most areas should remain dry through this evening. A much drier northwest flow behind the cold front is bringing brightening skies across western and central PA, but warm advection aloft will continue to support a veil of high clouds over these areas. Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the upper trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of low pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially come close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern Somerset County. For now have left mentions out of the area, as highest POPs remain south of the PA/MD border.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Thinking for Friday remains unchanged with large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough resulting in sunny, breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected highs ranging from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also support wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday afternoon and dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep mixing. Higher fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire spread, despite expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to around 30pct, although some parts of far southern PA could fall into the 20s. An active pattern is likely for the weekend and into the start of April. The first system will bring showers to much of central PA on Saturday wiht a quick tenth to quarter inch of rain possible during the day on Saturday. Showers linger into Saturday evening before tapering off.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sunday looks dry to start as a west-to-east oriented boundary sags south of the Mason-Dixon Line. A wave of low pressure along that boundary will lift back into Pennsylvania early next week, bringing widespread rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday. Zonal flow aloft often promotes seasonable temperatures, but rain and clouds will likely result in temperatures trending a bit below average for the start of April with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. For the second half of the week, ensemble guidance depicts a deepening low pressure system moving into the northeast and bombing out off the New England coast. This system is likely to bring ample precipitation and strong winds. Current temperature profiles indicate some snow potential at higher elevations in the northern mountains and Laurels, but details remain highly uncertain.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conds being enjoyed this afternoon central and west while MVFR cigs cover far east/southeastern areas. Mainly VFR will follow for later tonight and Friday as a weak sfc ridge of high pressure builds over the Commonwealth. The is a low end probability for a few periods of MVFR cigs redeveloping late tonight at KJST and KBFD. NW winds will increase tonight and Friday as sfc low strengthens offshore. with likely gusts into the low to mid 20s. Borderline LLWS at all TAF sites tonight with the base of 35KT NW winds between 1.5 and 2 kft AGL. Leaning toward some mixing of the NW wind to smooth out the vertical gradient of the wind profile and create more of a turbulent low- level mechanical mixing profile compared to true LLWS with a +/-20KT change over 200 FT in the verticaL. Outlook... Fri...Patchy MVFR cigs possible early across the Western Mtns of PA, otherwise VFR with a moderately gusty (20-25 mph) NW winds. Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry weather Sunday afternoon.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Banghoff AVIATION...Lambert

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