Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 162333
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
733 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a very mild first half of March (warmest on record in some
spots), temperatures will drop below normal for the start of
the upcoming week as a cold front pushes southeast across the
state late tonight and early Sunday.

The cold air will persist into the midweek period accompanied
by a several bouts of snow showers over the Alleghenies and
Laurel Highlands. Temperatures will moderate to near normal by
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
125 kt jet max and associated positive DPVA will accompany the
passage of a cold front into the CWA tonight, supporting a line
of rain showers. The rain is progged to enter Warren Co between
9 and 10 PM, then press SE towards the I-80 corridor after
midnight. Much of the rain will break up across the Central and
SE zones as the UVVEL associated with the aforementioned
favorable exit region of the jet max races off to the east,
leaving the region in broad deep layer subsidence beneath the
left entrance region of the same jet core.

Rainfall will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across
the NW Mtns, to just a few hundredths over the Central Ridge
and Valley Region and little or nothing across the Middle and
Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Not much QPF being produced by most models after 12Z Sunday as
a well-defined mid and upper level dry slot expands across the
CWA, with the straight W-E llvl winds keeping most/all lake
effect to our N. Highest PoPs (40%) will be confined to isolated
rain/snow showers in NW zones.

Subsidence also aids in drying things out, but clouds won`t go
away Sun aftn/night. A gradual decrease in llvl temps will put
the 8H temps down to -2C SE to -8C NW by late in the day Sunday.

DOD/24 hour max temp drop will range from about 5 deg F across
the Lower Susq Valley to nearly 15F cooler across the NW Mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-Winter feel through the first full day of Spring
-Risk of locally heavy snow showers and squalls Sun night-Tue
-Longest stretch of below average temps since mid-January

Despite plenty of signs of early Spring thanks to one of the
warmest winter seasons and first 15 days of March on record, the
first official week of Spring 2024 will begin on the cold side
with frequent snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and over the
Allegheny Plateau. There will also be the potential for
localized snow squalls through midweek along with late season
lake enhanced and orographic snow accumulation in the favored
snowbelts and higher terrain.

Several reinforcing shots of cold air will maintain one of the
longest stretches (3-5 days) of below climo temperatures since
mid-January. That speaks to how mild it has been over the last
few months. Ensemble data shows some moderation by late week
with max precip probs shaded toward southeast PA by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The gusty southwesterly wind of earlier has become less gusty
as the evening has progressed. Mid-level clouds are
overspreading NW PA at 00z, and will continue to progress
southeastward into the overnight hours as a cold front
approaches.

Rain showers are expected to develop across NW PA after sunset
and spread southeastward overnight as well. Additionally, a
several hour period of LLWS is expected overnight due to a 35-45
kt southwesterly jet passing overhead a couple thousand feet
off the sfc.

The rain shower activity will tend to dissipate as it
progresses southeastward across the remainder of Central PA
overnight, and may not even reach the Lower Susq Valley. Low-
end MVFR cigs will develop over the western highlands (BFD, JST)
overnight, and borderline VFR/MVFR cigs should spill into the
central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT). The Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS)
should remain VFR through the TAF period.

On Sunday, the front will pull away from the area with chillier
air arriving on an increasingly blustery northwesterly wind.
Lingering MVFR cigs and perhaps a few -SHRASN are expected
across the western highlands, with predominantly VFR conds
expected elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sun night-Thurs...Periodic snow showers and reductions,
primarily across N/W PA. This will be enhanced by reinforcing
shots of chilly air and gusty W/NW winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19
at 11:06 PM EDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Steinbugl


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