Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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537 FXUS61 KBGM 131734 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 134 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures are expected today, however a warm front will push through the area and kick off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. An upper level low then moves over the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday with additional periods of rain expected. High pressure moves in with generally dry and warm weather to round out the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1018 AM update... A few minor timing and location changes for the showers moving in late this morning. Otherwise, we are still expecting a very brief break in the early afternoon period before some convection develops after 2 PM, mainly over central NY. No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. 640 AM Update Increased cloud cover and fog coverage through about 9-10 AM this morning, before it scatters out and lifts. Otherwise, minor tweaks to PoPs based on the latest cams, especially the 09z HRRR. No other significant changes at this time. 420 AM Update Low clouds and patchy fog will gradually burn off by the mid- morning hours today. A weak warm frontal boundary could bring a few showers to west-central NY by the late morning hours. The highest chances for more scattered showers appears to be across the Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley areas...closer to the frontal forcing. Outside of a stray shower or sprinkle NE PA is expected to remain dry of the day. The NY southern tier will be on the borderline between the drier weather to the south and more extensive shower activity north; but overall it is trending drier until the afternoon hours here. Instability is initially very low, but as the warm front progresses north/east up to 750 J/Kg of SBCAPE could develop over the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier regions by late afternoon. Overall, moisture and lift will be lacking (i.e. marginal) but a few isolated t`storms could kick off into the early evening hours. Temperatures eventually warm up into the mid-60s(east) to mid-70s(west) by late afternoon, after the warm front moves through. The warm front continues to head northward, up into far northern NY overnight. A few showers or t`storms may linger along and north of I- 90 into the overnight period, before completely lifting north of our forecast area during the predawn hours Tuesday. It will be mild, with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s for most locations. Tuesday is trending drier in the latest guidance, especially the morning and early afternoon hours. It should start off dry and partly to mostly sunny in the morning...again with the warm front well off to our north. The mid/upper level low will still be way back, centered in Illinois through the morning hours. A spoke of moisture along a quasi-warm frontal boundary will eventually approach our area from the Mid-Atlantic later in the day. The question is, will any additional showers and thunderstorms be able to initiate in the fairly warm, moist and unstable air mass in place over the region late Tuesday morning and afternoon...even with out much of a lifting mechanism initially. The latest NAM and GFS do show at least scattered thunderstorms develop over the area in the afternoon...while the 00z ECMWF keeps it largely dry, with a bit more in the way of an upper level ridge in place just to our east. Heading into the early evening hours the aforementioned frontal wave over the Mid-Atlantic is progged to move north into our forecast area...with increasing chances for rain and some thunderstorms. Temperatures are trending up on Tuesday, with more morning/early afternoon sunshine possible; highs are now forecast to reach at least the low to mid-70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 405 AM Update... A slow-moving system moving extending a weak warm front across the Finger Lakes and Central NY region Wednesday will continue to supply mostly cloudy and showery conditions through Wednesday. As the main core of this system continues moving east, weak ridging behind this system could possibly give brief drier period, or very light showers, overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. Though, most models give consensus of some very light rain showers continuing in mainly Central NY through Thursday. Additionally, with the weak frontal boundary over Central NY, there are chances for afternoon through evening thunderstorms Wednesday. With the weak warm from extending up to northern Central NY, we`ll see a slight warming trend of temperatures increasing into the low- to mid-70s for Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 405 AM Update... The next system makes its way into the forecast area Friday, bringing back steadier rain showers across Central NY and Northeastern PA. Although long-term guidance can be a bit unreliable this far out in time, there`s a little bit of consensus for ridging to build behind the aforementioned system on Sunday, allowing the possibility of drier conditions for Sunday. Each model has variability in the strength of the ridging, leading to different possibilities of when rain showers end and start again, and the intensity. Overall, the rather overcast and showery pattern continues with the possibility of a brief break on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak warm front is pushing east/ne across the region early this afternoon and triggering some scattered light rain showers. Impactful restrictions are not expected with this first batch. There will be a brief dry break in the rain this afternoon before a round of convective showers and even a few storms develop after 20Z. There could be some temporary MVFR restrictions in vsbys or cigs with the showers/storms. The main threat will be ITH, SYR and RME. Areas south have lower chances of precip. The warm front will lift north tonight and as the convection dies down after sunset, nearly all of central NY and ne PA should be precip-free. VFR conditions should persist through the night. There is the potential for a period of LLWS overnight as well. Otherwise, winds are expected to be 5 to 12 kt out of the south through the period. The next round of showers/storms may start to get going just before 18Z Tuesday, but better chances exist after 18Z. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate to high confidence Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence. Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night into Saturday with showers and storms and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...BJT/MJM