849
FXUS61 KCTP 081739
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
139 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
- A mainly dry cold front over Central PA at midday pushes
  through the Susquehanna Valley this afternoon.

- A strong wave of low pressure will move across southern PA
  Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface cold front extended from near KELM to KUNV and KCBE at
1545Z with just some bkn high based cu along it.

Otherwise, negative LLVL Theta-E advection and increasing
wind/shear aloft will negate the chance for any cu to develop
vertical enough to produce precip along or ahead of this
boundary.

For this afternoon, look for good weather for most outdoor
activities with abundant sunshine and above normal high temps
by around 10 deg F. However, a gusty West-Northwest wind
(between 30-35KTS) will create good kite-flying weather, but
challenging conditions for the gold and frisbee football
courses.

High temps will vary from the mid 70s across the higher terrain
of the north and west to the mid 80s throughout the Southern
Valleys and Lower Susq Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
West winds and gusts will steadily decrease around and shortly
after sunset before veering around to a lighter NW then
northerly direction between midnight and daybreak.

After an initially clear sky, nigh clouds will increase from
the SW. The NAM pushes the old front a little farther S than the
GFS. A wave of low pressure will develop to the west and roll
along the front later tonight. Even the more- northerly position
of the old front would be a little too far S for much/any
convection to make it`s way into PA before sunrise.

During the early morning hours of Thursday, the old/stationary
front has potential to drift northward, but most guidance seems
to only bring it up to the srn border of the CWA. If the low-
pressure system sets up further to the north, there is some
potential for portions of southern PA to have a couple of hours
in the warm sector and some severe potential (outlined in SPC`s
Day 3 SWO with SLGT up to the MD-PA border) but with the bulk of
model guidance suggesting set-up south of the area, have mainly
stuck to SChc thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The aforementioned low moves off the coast on Friday and will
allow for relatively cool temperatures across central PA with
lingering showers as the unsettled pattern continues into the
weekend with an upper low crossing the region. The best chances
of precipitation tapering off will be in the overnight Saturday
morning period with chances increasing into the latter half of
the weekend.

Drier period will continue into the first part of next week, the
rest of the long term period, as upper level ridging
builds/moves across the eastern U.S. thanks to long wave
troffing being reconstituted across the Plains/eastern Rockies.
This will likely mean more rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms for the Plains, but a more settled pattern and
milder temps in the East, at least for few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front over Central PA this midday hour will move
southeast across the Susq Valley this afternoon.

No precip or MVFR is expected with the only change accompanying
its passage coming in the form of a 30-45 deg wind shift from
the WSW to the West or West-Northwest in its wake.

A drier westerly flow behind the front will maintain the
current, widespread VFR conditions for the rest of today and
tonight.

Winds will generally gust in the 20-30KT range behind the cold
front, but a few gusts in the mid-upper 30KT range are possible.

Another round of showers and storms will approach central PA
during the mid morning hours Thursday, as convection moves out
of the Ohio valley.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.

Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.

Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief
vis reductions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/NPB
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert