973
FXUS62 KMHX 101918
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
318 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area late today and tonight,
followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will
come through around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Main focus through early tonight will be an
increasing severe weather threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for all of ENC through 9 pm, and we should see
thunderstorm coverage ramp up considerably over the next couple
of hours as a front approaches from the NW. Main concerns this
afternoon/evening will be a risk of damaging wind gusts as well
as large hail greater than 1", which will be driven by the
presence of favorable low/mid level lapse rates, nearly
unidirectional deep layer wind shear of around 50 kts, and
MLCAPES over 1000 J/kg.

Expect thunderstorm develop to initially occur both along and
south of the front along the NC coastal and near the
strengthening sea breeze across the NC coast. This activity will
then blossom further as it heads east later this afternoon and
into the early evening before exiting the NC coast. Additionally,
CAMs continue to show a secondary line of showers or
thunderstorms along the main frontal boundary which could pose
an additional wind threat this evening as it heads for the
coast.

After convection exits the coast, strong CAA (for May) will
bring temps down into the 50s overnight, with areas of stratocu
forming along the coast. Some widely scattered showers may also
develop along the OBX by early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Much cooler conditions expected tomorrow as
northerly CAA winds persist. The combination of onshore flow and
extensive stratocu coverage will keep temps along the Outer and
Inner Banks areas in the 60s while further west, highs will
rebound into the low 70s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 PM Fri...Drier and cooler weather forecast for this
weekend as high pressure ridging builds in from the south and
west. More unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed as a
deepening low pressure tracks across the SOutheast and Mid-
Atlantic with high pressure quickly building in behind this low
on Thursday.

Sat Night and Sun... Not much change to the forecast for this
weekend. Upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this
weekend while a cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region
begins to push E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave
will round the base of this troughing on Saturday before
ridging finally begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the
surface low pressure with attendant fronts will be diving
SE`wards across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic
on Sat before moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the
region while high pressure ridge will gradually build in from
the south and west.

Cloud cover should mainly be over the coastal locales, esp OBX,
but may be some bkn diurnal strato cu all areas with the cold
air aloft. Highs only getting into the 70s each day while lows
dip down into the 50s each night.

Mon into the end of next week...Upper ridging finally builds over
the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as
previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks
E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed before troughing pushes
offshore on Thurs. Associated shortwave also quickly pushes E`wards
across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Tue into Wed
before pushing offshore on Thurs bringing our next threat for
unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes its way
E`wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains with low
pressure and its associated fronts quickly approaching the
Carolinas from the west Tue. Secondary low pressure development
is then forecast along the Eastern Seaboard Tue night into Wed
with this second low pushing off to the north and east of the
area by Wed evening. Though there still remains some differences
in timing and locations of these lows next week, ensemble and
global guidance is in enough consensus to put likely PoP`s
across the area Tue afternoon into Tue night with Chc PoP`s
across the area on Wed as the upper trough moves through with
drier conditions then forecast late next week. Temps remain
about avg across the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Afternoon/...
As of 300 PM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions will continue this
afternoon across ENC, however scattered to widespread
thunderstorms will soon move into the area, and bring a period
of sub-VFR conditions to most of the terminals. Thereafter, VFR
conditions will return tonight. Behind a cold front low level
stratocu will develop along the coast overnight, likely between
2000-3000 ft, and this will bring periods of MVFR conditions
east of US 17. Terminals along the US 17 corridor including KEWN
and KPGV, may see some occasional moments of MVFR ceilings but
current thinking is that the cloud deck remains scattered here
most of the night. Stratucu deck will retreat eastward tomorrow
with VFR conditions expected for all the TAF sites.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 PM Fri...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast across
the CWA through early next week before the next potential round
of sub VFR conditions around mid week next week with the
approach of a low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 315 PM Fri...SCAs are set to go into effect this evening
due to increasing winds associated with a cold front moving
through the area.

Winds ahead of the front this afternoon/evening will be SW
10-20, except for across portions of the northern waters where
NE winds have already developed at 10-20 kts. The front will
continue to cross the rest of the coastal waters later this
afternoon and evening and behind it winds will strengthen to N
at 20-30 kts through early tomorrow morning. By tomorrow morning
winds will decrease to 10-20 kts, and then become NE at 5-15 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

Seas will be 3-5 ft through this evening, and then increase to
4-6 ft after midnight through early tomorrow morning. Seas
decrease to 3-5 ft tomorrow for all but the outer central waters
where some 6 footers may linger through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 320 PM Fri...Winds ease down to 5-10 kts by Sat evening
and seas along our coastal waters fall to 2-4 ft. Lighter winds
at 5-15 kts and 2-4 ft seas then persist through Monday before
winds begin increasing on Tue to 15-20 kts out ahead of an
approaching low. Seas also build on Tue in response to the
stronger winds as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF