583
FXUS66 KMTR 111142
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
442 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Warm temperatures continue inland today with highs from the upper
80s to lower 90s. Cooling has begun at the coast and spreads
inland over the weekend into Monday with seasonal to warm
temperatures through the next week. Areas of morning low clouds
and fog are possible over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Moisture within a very shallow marine layer has brought areas of low
stratus and dense fog to coastal portions of the region early this
morning. Given reduced visibility on area webcams and observations a
Dense Fog Advisory was issued for areas from SF south through
Monterey Bay and down the Big Sur coast. Visibility values are
bouncing around somewhat in places, but prepare for sudden changes
if you have travel plans overnight. The advisory will continue
through 10 AM this morning. Expect fog/stratus to retreat towards
the coast thereafter with the marine layer keeping coastal/bayside
temperatures cool this afternoon. It will be a different story
inland as readings climb well into the 80s. The warmest locations
will be within the North/East/South Bay Valleys and within southern
interior Monterey and San Benito Counties, where a moderate HeatRisk
will exist. This means that sensitive populations should take care
and practice heat safety during the warmest (late morning - early
evening) daytime hours. By tonight expect stratus/fog to redevelop
along coastal areas with another chance for dense fog yet again into
Sunday morning. Lows will be mostly in the 50s.

Here`s some safety tips for hot temperatures:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper ridge will weaken with a slight cooling trend developing
by early next week. Temperatures will moderate a bit for mid to late
week with the trend of warmer temperatures inland and cooler
temperatures along the coast continuing. In general look for highs
in the 80s inland, 70s within the marine influenced valleys, and 60s
on the beaches. Looking forward the latest climate outlook from the
Climate Prediction Center suggests temperatures and precipitation
should remain near seasonal averages between May 18th-24th.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of SNS and STS
as a compressed, shallow marine layer is hugging the coastline and
protruding into the Bay, Monterey Bay, and Russian River Valley.
VFR through the TAF period at all terminals with the exception of
MRY and SNS. Since OAK and SFO have yet to be impacted by a
reduction to flight category thus far and the overall synoptic
pattern is not changing much through the TAF period, there is
uncertainty and low confidence on if the terminals will
experience a reduction to flight category tonight. Widespread VFR
and breezy onshore flow will prevail by this afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow.
There still remains uncertainty and low confidence on if the
terminal will receive stratus this morning. The stratus is
currently still holding tight to the coast and does not look to be
expanding towards the terminal at this time. In addition, because
the marine layer is compressed and shallower than 1,000 feet, it
likely will not be able to feed through the San Bruno Gap. Winds
will become breezy out of the west this afternoon. There is
similarly uncertainty and low confidence on if the terminal will
see a reduction to flight category tonight due to the fact that it
has not yet materialized this morning and the overall synoptic
pattern is not changing much through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and LIFR
with drainage flow at SNS. Winds will remain breezy out of the
west/northwest through the TAF period. LIFR conditions are slated
to plague both terminals again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 434 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

A compressed and shallow marine layer is currently hugging a
majority of the coastline with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for
Monterey Bay through 10 AM Saturday. Surface high pressure will
allow for fair weather and moderate northwesterly breezes to
prevail  this weekend. Winds begin to increase Monday as surface
high  pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves
east,  keeping things dry and strengthening northwesterly winds to
a fresh  breeze status, particularly over the outer waters, North
Bay Coast,  and Big Sur Coast. Significant wave heights will also
begin building  as a result at the start of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 719 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

Long period southwest swell will lead to slightly elevated chances
for sneaker wave and rip current development this weekend.
Conditions are expected to stay below Beach Hazards Statement
criteria as swell height will only be between 1-2 feet. However, in
light of anomalously warm temperatures and increased likelihood of
people traveling to the coast, visitors to the beach should remember
to take safety precautions to prevent being caught by an unexpected
large wave and to never turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for CAZ006-509-
     528>530.

PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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