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000
FXUS63 KPAH 231120
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers and a few
  thunderstorms to the area late this afternoon through late
  tonight. Rainfall totals will range from 0.10 to 0.40" in most
  areas.

- Dry and seasonably mild weather will return Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- An unsettled, warm, and breezy period of weather is expected
  beginning Friday and continuing into early next week. At this
  time, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms look to
  be Friday night and Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today and tonight...High pressure centered over the southeast
CONUS is advecting warmer southerly flow into the region this
morning. This will allow temperatures to warm near normal values
for highs, in the lower to middle 70s in most areas. This
afternoon and tonight, a weak surface cold front associated with
a surface low moving NE through the Great Lakes will move into
the region. The best ascent and moisture convergence will be
north of the forecast area, but scattered to numerous light rain
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will sag into the region
from NW to SE late this afternoon through late tonight. This
won`t be as soaking rain by any means, but locations near
Interstate 64 are progged to receive about 0.25-0.50" of rain.
Further south towards the AR/TN borders, rainfall amounts will
be very light due to the weaker ascent, only up to 0.10" at
most. The rain will exit the region early Wednesday morning,
with low temperatures ranging from 45-55 degrees from N to S.

Wednesday and Thursday...The midweek period will be dry with
seasonably warm temperatures. Flow aloft will be anticyclonic,
keeping the region dry. Surface high pressure centered across
the northern Great Lakes will filter drier, but not particularly
cooler, air into the region. High temperatures both days will
reach the upper 60s to lower and middle 70s. Overnight lows will
drop to 40-50 degrees Wednesday night and 50-60 degrees Thursday
night.

Friday through Monday...A period of warm, breezy, and unsettled
weather remains in the forecast beginning Friday...continuing
into early next week. The synoptic flow aloft will transition to
feature troughing across the Intermountain West, with ridging
over the Eastern Seaboard. Shortwave troughs will eject into the
southern Great Plains from the base of the longwave trough, with
surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern Great Plains.

The pattern throughout this period will feature chc to likely
PoPs due to differences in model timing and the broad WAA regime
in place. However, two periods in particular have come into
better focus for the highest PoPs, Friday night and Sunday
night. Both of these days will see surface lows moving from the
central/southern Great Plains NE into the Great Lakes region.
Whether these systems will bring severe weather remains to be
seen. However, the long range ensemble mean does show a rather
unstable and sheared environment over the forecast area Sunday
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front, so
this period looks to be the one to watch for possible severe
potential at this time. Outside of the thunderstorm potential,
gradient winds will be breezy from the S to SW, gusting to 25-30
kts during peak heating hours each day.

High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal values
through this time as well, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s
each day. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to middle
60s as well, owing to dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

High-level cirrus this morning will thicken and lower ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front will push through the
region between roughly 22z-06z from NW to SE, with scattered to
numerous rain showers accompanying it. Precipitation will
mainly be limited to showers, but did include a PROB30 group for
TSRA activity at MVN where forcing will be greatest. Cigs
should mainly stay VFR but some brief restrictions to MVFR are
possible under heavier rainfall activity.

Winds will increase from SW, sustained at 12-18 kts with gusts
to around 25 kts through early evening. Following the frontal
passage, winds will veer W to NW and relax to 4-8 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS