069
FXUS63 KSGF 032307
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this
  afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast
  and south central MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7
 PM tonight.

- Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold
  front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over
  the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and
  up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day
  forecast. Rainfall during this period may be between 1 and 3
  inches which may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure over northern Missouri was helping to make for a
nice day across the region though cloud cover remained across
the region. A few showers or isolated storms were lingering
across portions of south central Missouri where a lingering
frontal boundary from an earlier front remained. This activity
may continue through early evening but will dissipate quickly
near and after dark. No severe weather is expected with this
activity.

A storm system associated with a cold front will approach the
region overnight into Saturday morning. This frontal boundary
will begin to push into far southeastern Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks around sunrise Saturday morning. the region is
under a Marginal Risk for severe weather with this system.
Expectations are that the line of strong to severe storms will
move into the region with a potential weakening trend as low
level and upper level winds will be rather weak, though
instability looks to be from 1000-2500 j/kg thanks to a warm
airmass and southerly winds. However, hail to quarters in size
and damaging winds will be possible. some additional storms may
develop and linger into the afternoon and evening but should
transition to showers during the evening. Rainfall will also be
a concern with wet antecedent conditions leading to potential
local flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A rather active pattern remains in the forecast for the next
week with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and
rainfall through the end of next week.

Sunday: In the wake of the storms on Saturday, a surface/middle
level shortwave or low will slide north across the southern
plains and over the region. this will bring additional showers
and storms to the region, though current indication suggest
that this period would be below severe limits. The continued
rain chances may lead to flooding concerns which will be the
theme for the next 7 days.

Monday - Tuesday: A strongly negatively tilted upper trough
will move across the plains and swing a strongly forecast cold
front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. The
Ozarks will be in the warm sector ahead of this system with some
models indicating as much as 3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE in advance
of the front with mid level (40-50kt) and upper level jet
support. The combination of instability and shear will bring
the chance for severe weather to the region as a result through
Tuesday morning.

Once storms push through the region, a warm front will quickly
lift back to the north through the Ozarks as low pressure
develops in the plains.

Wednesday- Friday: Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues
the potential for additional severe storms for the middle of
next week. The indications for Thursday and Friday are rather
uncertain as the multiple rounds of storms a changing upper
level pattern limits rain chances.

With the multiple days where rain is possible wide spread 1 to 3
inch rain amounts will be possible through the forecast period.
This may lead to at least localized flooding for areas that
have already seen ample rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Clouds will continue to thin at the start of the TAF period.
Areas of fog will likely develop again late tonight across
portions of south-central Missouri, so have added reduced
visibilities to the BBG TAF after 10Z.

A line of showers and thunderstorms across Kansas is expected to
weaken as it moves east into Missouri in the early morning
hours, though will reintensify in the afternoon and may impact
the SGF and BBG sites in particular.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant
rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of
rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of
showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized
flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will
be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with
local higher amounts of rainfall through the period.

Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and
these will be monitored through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A warm airmass will be in place across the region for the
middle of next week. This may allow overnight low temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday nights to remain warm and approach record
warm minimum temperatures.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Didio
HYDROLOGY...Hatch
CLIMATE...Hatch