Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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099 FXUS64 KSJT 100533 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1233 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Tornado Watch in Affect through 9PM CT tonight across the Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, Eastern Concho Valley, and Southeast Big Country. Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country, Eastern Concho Valley, and Eastern Big Country. Large hail, Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes are possible across these areas through 9PM tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southwest, potentially affecting the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, Concho Valley, and Western Heartland. Storms that do develop are not expected to become as severe as we are currently expecting this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern. An upper low will be over the Nevada/Arizona border Friday night, and will move over the Four Corners area by Saturday evening. The low is progged to move across the western half of Kansas Sunday night, with a trough extending south across our area. An embedded disturbance or two will be moving over our area ahead of this system. With this setup and increased lift/moisture in our area, we have medium to high PoPs (40-80 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday. Rain chances should largely dwindle Monday with a weak cold frontal passage, and as the aforementioned trough shifts east of our area. Less cloud cover and a return to southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Our area will have another chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper trough is progged to move into the southern Plains. The details are more uncertain that far out, however. After highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday, temperatures may be a little cooler Thursday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 MVFR ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range are affecting all sites south of KABI late tonight. Expect these low clouds to persist through 12Z this morning, with ceilings then rising to VFR heights by 18Z Friday, and expected to remain VFR through the rest of the TAF period. There may also be a few SHRA and TSRA that could affect areas south of KSJT and KBBD that develop by late morning or early afternoon. Have introduced some VCTS`s and PROB30 groups to address this potential for Friday afternoon. Winds should remain east/northeast through the period with a few gusts to around 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 59 78 60 / 20 10 10 10 San Angelo 97 62 80 62 / 10 10 30 20 Junction 99 64 82 63 / 20 10 30 20 Brownwood 88 60 78 60 / 60 20 10 10 Sweetwater 82 59 78 61 / 10 10 10 10 Ozona 96 63 78 62 / 20 10 40 30 Brady 91 63 77 61 / 30 10 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20