431
FNUS73 KABR 051308
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Metz WMA Rx Burn...MN DNR
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
808 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will exit to the east this morning
leaving the region with increasing southeast to south winds. The
burn site remains to the east of the tightest pressure gradient
today, so winds should max out with gusts around 20 mph late this
afternoon. Winds will continue to increase on Monday with gusts to
40 mph by mid afternoon as a strong area of low pressure is set
to bring showers and strong to severe thunderstorms by late
afternoon Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......600-5800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph increasing to around 17 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (85200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9   10  7   3   2   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............52  57  60  62  64  66  67  68  68
RH..............69  59  53  48  43  40  39  36  36
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..5   7   9   10  12  12  13  13  14
20 FT wind gust.9   10  12  13  15  16  16  17  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.5 3.6 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Mixing height.......400-5300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (84500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   4   4   5   17  26  32  27  28  20  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  66  62  58  56  54  53  53  51  51  51  50
RH..............37  38  46  55  62  66  69  71  77  77  77  80
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..15  15  13  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  15  16
20 FT wind gust.20  20  21  21  22  23  23  24  25  26  28  29
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3 4.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Smoke Dispersal.GD  GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the afternoon. Slight chance
                    of rain showers late in the afternoon, then
                    chance of rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................2 percent increasing to 24 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southeast winds 16 to 25 mph with gusts
                    to around 36 mph increasing to 26 to 29 mph
                    with gusts to around 43 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-4600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 28 mph increasing to 40 to 43
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (99200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (138200
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    excellent (171400 knot-ft) in the afternoon
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  46  57  62  67  65  68  74  77  79  80  83
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  30  30  20  30  40
Temp............50  51  53  55  59  61  64  66  67  68  69  68
RH..............80  80  77  74  67  67  63  61  63  61  60  60
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..16  18  20  21  23  24  25  26  28  28  29  28
20 FT wind gust.30  32  33  32  33  35  36  37  39  40  41  43
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  VGD EXL EXL VGD

$$
Forecaster...Doering
Requested by...Nicholas Snavely
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413186.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nicholas.Snavely@state.mn.us