386
FXAK69 PAFG 272105
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
105 PM AKDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The first half of the forecast, models remain consistent. But for
the longer ranges, high spreads and little run to run consistency
continues. Upper level ridging will continue to build across the
Yukon Delta through tonight, while the remnants of the Interior
Alaska ridge weakens over the North Slope. A band of weak energy
caught between the two areas of high pressure will drift across
the Interior heading into Monday. From Tuesday through Saturday,
models diverge significantly. The 12z runs of the NAM, Canadian
and 00z ECMWF were all clustered with a strong Arctic low dropping
south near the West Coast. The GFS has remained consistent with a
weaker upper trough across the North Slope. The 12z ECMWF came in
quite a bit different, with the closed upper low dropping south
along the ALCAN border. The GEFS and Euro ensembles have remained
consistent in overall pattern evolution, but vary in upper system
strength. Given the uncertainty, have not strayed from the
previous forecast and will continue to monitor the latest model
trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weak energy drifting across Interior Alaska will lead to isolated
afternoon and evening shower, mainly from Tok, northwest to areas
south of Fairbanks for the next several days. Coverage looks
spotty, and QPF amounts look to remain light where rain does fall.
Temperatures across the Interior will remain mild, with mid 40s
to upper 50s continuing with perhaps a few lower 60s. Better
chances for precipitation arrive for mid to late week as upper
troughing drops out of Arctic and into the North Slope. Coverage
will depend on the upper trough strength and track, which at this
time, is highly uncertain.

Winds will continue to subside across the North Slope tonight, but
look to remain onshore. Continued periods of light snow, fog and
low stratus will remain in place through Monday. Upper trough will
impact the North Slope for mid to late next week. The main issue
will be upper system strength. The cluster of the NAM, 00z ECMWF
and Canadian would bring pretty good chances for winter weather
from Tuesday through Friday along with colder temperatures. The
weaker GFS brings snow with its solution, but less cold air. For
now, the forecast calls for increasing chances for precipitation
banked against the Brooks Range for mid to late next week.
Temperatures look to remain in the teens along the coast, and
lower 30s near the mountains. But, temperatures may be a bit
colder if the stronger model solutions pan out.

Upper high pressure will bring generally dry conditions to the
West Coast through Tuesday. Areas of fog and low stratus will
remain possible for communities along the Norton Sound tonight
into Sunday morning. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s
along the coast, to mid 40s inland. Precipitation will once again
be dependent on the evolution and track of the upper system. Most
model guidance has increasing precipitation chances for mid to
late week as the upper system drops across the Bering Strait and
into the Bering Sea. Wind would also be on the increase for mid to
late week with the upper low tracking near the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will remain steady across the Tanana Valley through
the forecast period, with mainly 50s to perhaps a few lower 60s
for highs. Humidity values will be in the lower 20 percent range
Sunday through Monday, then falling into the upper teen percent
range for Tuesday through Friday. Winds will generally range in
the 10 mph range through the next several days, with occasional
gusts in wind prone gap areas near 20 mph.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$