000
FXAK69 PAFG 202050
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1250 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper level ridging continues to dominate Interior Alaska with
warm and dry weather forecast to continue into early next week. An
upper low in the Bering Sea and a secondary upper system south of
the Aleutian Islands continue to stream moisture and cloud cover
northeast across the Yukon Delta. Water vapor satellite imagery
continues to show dry air over eastern interior Alaska, and will
keep warm temperatures across the Interior. The upper ridge is
forecast to break down Monday into Tuesday as a weak piece of
energy lifts north into southern Alaska. Models have come into
better agreement on timing and track this cycle, and increased
cloud cover and slight cooler temperatures are expected. This weak
upper system will drift across southern Alaska through midweek.
Meanwhile, the Bering Sea low will deepen and shift eastward from
mid to late week. As it does so, it will allow the upper ridge to
rebuild across Interior Alaska, while a frontal boundary moves
into the West Coast with increased chances for precipitation and
wind for late in the extended period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging will continue across Interior Alaska through Monday with
continued warm and dry conditions. Temperatures remain in the 40s
to 50s with a few lower 60s Sunday into Monday. Temperatures look
to cool around 5-10 degF from Tuesday into next weekend. Overall,
dry conditions are expected through Monday. A few showers may
accompany the weak upper system late Monday into Tuesday as it
moves by to the south. Coverage does not look overly impressive at
this point. Winds may also continue to be breezy across the
Alaska Range through Monday due to increased thermal gradient
likely being missed by the models being too cool for the past
several days. Wind gusts in the 20 to 40 mph range will likely
continue through Monday.

Up north, an upper storm system will pass to the north of the northern coast.
However, a cold front will usher in colder air and northwesterly
flow along with a few snow showers through Monday. Temperatures
will reach into the single digits to lower teens on the North
Slope during this period. Flow will transition back to
northeasterly for mid to late week and increase. Sustained winds
of 20 to 25 mph are expected, along with continued periods of
light snowfall. Temperatures will generally range from the teens
to 20s from Tuesday into next weekend.

The stream of moisture from the southeast will continue across the
Yukon Delta through Sunday with continued periods of light rain
and snow. Precipitation looks to come to an end by Monday morning.
Winter Weather Advisories continue for St. Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strati Coast will continue due to winds 40 to 55 mph and
areas of blowing snow with reduced visibility. The southeasterly
upper flow will weaken by Tuesday as the Bering Sea low begins to
move into the region. There are some model differences how quickly
the upper low shifts eastward and spreads the next round of
precipitation and wind into the West Coast. Models do agree that a
frontal boundary will move onshore Wednesday and spread gusty
winds and precipitation along the West Coast. Models do disagree
on how quickly precipitation spreads east into the Interior,
possibly Friday into Saturday. Precipitation type will likely
remain snow along the coast, with rain inland. Temperatures will
generally range from the 30s to the 40s through the period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Storm Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-817-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
&&

$$