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000
FXAK67 PAJK 091349
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
549 AM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through tonight/...Brief 500mb ridging will bring
decreasing showers to the panhandle during the day, but showers
return this evening as the next weather system approaches. While
rain is expected to be the main precip type, with 850mb temps near -6
to -7C, snow briefly mixing into the rain showers can`t be ruled
out.

At the surface, passing trough over the NE coast will give increased
wind speeds to parts of the northern panhandle. First in Stephen`s
passage early this morning, then Lynn Canal. Sustained winds
around 25 kts are possible with gusts in Skagway reaching near 40
mph. These winds won`t last long though. Once the trough clears
the area, wind speeds will decrease pretty quickly this evening.

Today`s afternoon temps will still be at or below normal,
reaching the low to mid 40s.


.LONG TERM...Similar broad thoughts to the prior forecast, with a
500 mb low tracking southeast across the Gulf of Alaska through
mid to late week. Behind the closed low passing southeast, another
mid level trough follows a similar pattern late in the week and
into the weekend. Major changes to the forecast include a
relatively transient shortwave ridge on Thursday, which will
hinder moisture in the mid levels. This hindrance will most likely
result in some clearing skies and lighter winds going into
Thursday, ahead of the next incoming system on Friday. Jury is
still out on a potential marine layer developing in the gulf, how
far it might extend into the panhandle, how long it might stay,
and how it will impact temperatures for this Thursday time. At
this time, the current forecast reflects this idea that a marine
layer will not infiltrate the panhandle. Therefore, raised maximum
temperatures to near 90th percentile on Thursday to reflect solar
radiation hitting most of the panhandle, driving up temperatures.

As stated before, Friday looks to be the next frontal feature to
move over the panhandle. This front is remnant of a decaying low
near the northern Gulf of Alaska, again, similar to the previous
system. 850 mb temperatures ahead of the system associated with a
shortwave trough will likely bring some convective, sparse snow
showers to the NE gulf coast and northern half of the panhandle.
Expect accumulations to be minor due to wet bulb temperatures
greater than 34 degrees for most areas limiting accumulations. Winds
associated with this system look to be a good push of southerlies up
to 25 knots in the inner channels. These winds may be on the low
end, but did not have confidence on magnitude nor timing to raise
any higher.

&&

.AVIATION...The persistent showers will decrease this morning before
the next band of showers moves over SEAK with shower activity
increasing late this afternoon into tonight. Currently there is a
mix of VFR and MVFR conditions from lower CIGs but there will be
more VFR through today. There are higher chances of MVFR conditions
to develop from the increase shower activity tonight. Some stronger
showers are producing IFR CIGs and VIS conditions this morning but
they should not last long as they fade out. A ridge will build over
the inner channels through this afternoon which will produce some
strong and gusty winds near PAGY. These stronger wind gusts will
slowly decrease through this evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...ABJ

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