687
FXUS61 KAKQ 081925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
325 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are
expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push
through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level
trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday,
with dry conditions expected Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2:30 PM Wed...Diurnal cu has developed across the CWA but
only some light returns on radar have been observed so far
today. Surface analysis shows a west/east oriented stationary
boundary across TN as well as lee troughing across VA and the
Piedmont. The environment is primed to support strong to severe
storms with latest RAP analysis showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 45+ kt of deep layer shear. The lacking ingredient for the
next few hours, however, is forcing. CAMs are showing clusters
of storms developing this evening and moving southeast. Any of
these storms could become strong to severe with the main
concerns being severe gusts and hail. We`ll have a break in the
showers and storms is late tonight but PoPs will increase again
as we get closer to sunrise as a decaying MCS approaches from
the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...The remnants of a decaying MCS will move
through the area Thursday morning and produce scattered showers
and storms. The threat for storms to become strong to severe
remains on the table, mainly south of I64, given 1000+ J/kg
MLCAPE, 45-50 kt of deep layer shear, and mid-level lapse rates
slightly greater than 7 C/km. SPC has the entire CWA under a
Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather with the main hazard of
concern being damaging wind gusts. PoPs will then start to die
off as we approach the evening hours. Highs will reach nearly
90 across the southern half of the FA with the northern half
remaining closer to 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the
model agreement is improved compared to yesterday`s 12Z runs.
The main weather maker will be yet another shortwave dropping
SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday.
This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low
chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading
through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be
cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system
(unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than
any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over
the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC.
The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the
deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of
the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are
drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over
the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday
with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next
upper trough approaches from the lower MS/TN Valley. Temps will
be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to
mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon-Tue (highs mid/upper 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Pred VFR through the period, although
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening
could result in periods of gusty winds and reduced VIS and CIGs.

Outlook...Active pattern on Thu with at least a chc for
showers/storm all day (even in the morning). Some strong storms
will be possible. Drying out from W to E Thu evening, then VFR
Fri, but there will be a chc for showers/isolated tstms
redeveloping Fri aftn into Fri evening. Mainly dry Sat, but
another chc for showers Sat night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Wed...The main feature of note during the period will
be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening
through tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt out
of the southwest until tomorrow afternoon when they start to
back to the east. Waves will be 1-3 ft through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth
of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal
flooding on tonight`s high tide cycle. Water levels along bay-
facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed
minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effort for these areas. Locations along and adjacent
to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but
fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood
Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere,
nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be
impactful enough for additional statements.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today May 8th:

* RIC: 92 (1936)
* ORF: 95 (1880)
* SBY: 93 (1936)
* ECG: 91 (2010)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...OJC/LKB
SHORT TERM...OJC/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/SW/DAG
AVIATION...LKB/OJC
MARINE...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ