Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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457
FXUS61 KALY 041931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As a storm system approaches from the west, rain will
overspread the area late tonight and continue through much of the
day on Sunday, with much cooler temperatures.  Clouds will break for
some sun on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region.
Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for
showers returns to the region for Wednesday and into the latter
portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 331 PM EDT...At the surface, high pressure (around 1030
hpa) is now exiting off the coast of Maine and it will continue
to slowly depart off to the east for tonight. Meanwhile, a slow
moving frontal boundary is located over the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes and it will be heading towards the area for tonight
into Sunday.

Visible satellite shows a mostly cloudy sky over the region,
with the most breaks for far southern areas. Skies will continue
to be mostly cloudy through the evening with some occasional
breaks, but sky cover will start to lower and thicken for
tonight as the storm system approaches from the west.

A few light sprinkles and brief showers can be seen on radar
across central New York, with a few of these already sneaking
into the Adirondacks. Through the evening hours, a brief shower
can`t be ruled out for western areas, but most of the area will
be staying dry this evening, as the best forcing continues to
remain off to the west.

As the ridge axis continues to depart off to the east tonight,
warm advection thanks a southerly low level jet around 30 kts
will allow for a period of fairly steady rain showers to spread
towards the area for the late night hours. 18z HRRR suggest
this will be spreading across southern and western areas after
midnight and expanding northeast across the area for the late
night hours. Rainfall looks fairly light in intensity overall,
but all areas will be see rainfall by daybreak, with up to a
quarter inch of rainfall occurring by sunrise Sunday. Southerly
winds will be starting to pick up by the late night as well,
especially in the larger north-south valleys.

After another mild and comfortable day, temps will drop this
evening and will continue to fall for tonight with the rain
spreading into the area. Most areas will see lows in the mid to
upper 40s (some spots may bottom out right around 50).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west, most of
Sunday looks to be fairly wet and damp with periods of showers
through the entire day, with the steadiest and heaviest rainfall
across northern and western areas. Temps will be held down and
steady due to the persistent clouds and precip, with most spots
being held into the lower to middle 50s through the day.
Overall, additional precip on Sunday will be one third to two
thirds of an inch of rainfall. While this won`t be enough to
cause any hydro issues (especially within greenup starting to
occur), it still make for some wet and soggy conditions
outdoors.

Although the steadiest precip will be done for Sunday evening,
some showers may still linger into Sunday night as the main
frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east overnight.
Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and damp with some patchy fog
and temps in the upper 40s.

On Monday, clouds will eventually break for some sun by the mid
to late morning hours. A stray shower or sprinkle is still
possible for some high terrain or eastern areas, but most spots
should be dry on Monday. Temps will be mild once again,
especially once the sun returns by Monday afternoon, when temps
should reach back into the 70s for valley areas. Quiet weather
will continue into Monday night, with skies becoming mainly
clear and lows falling into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will begin will high pressure and upper
level ridging close to the area on Tuesday. This should allow
for a nice day with plenty of sun and rather mild temps. Many
valley areas may reach into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday
afternoon.

However, the quiet and pleasant weather will only be short lived,
as the ridge will be breaking down for the middle to latter
portion of the week. The first in a series of shortwaves will be
moving across the area on Wednesday. Guidance suggest a wave of
low pressure will be tracking over or just north of the area.
As a result, a period of showers is expected for Wednesday and
some thunder will be possible as well (especially southern
areas). It should still be fairly mild with temps in the 60s and
70s once again.

Behind this initial disturbance, additional storms are expected
to impact the region, as an upper level trough sets up over the
Northeast and disturbances rotate across the region. With more
wet weather expected for Thursday through the weekend, will
continue to go with chc to likely POPs each day. A few
additional rumbles of thunder are possible from time to time as
well, although it will depend on just how much instability is
available. Temps still look close to normal, with highs in the
60s and overnight lows in the 40s to near 50 through the late
week and no threat for any frost/freeze in areas where the
growing season has begun.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
this afternoon as high pressure remains displaced just to our
east off the New England Coast. Visible satellite shows a
general increasing trend in cloud cover as a frontal system
pushes further into the Ohio Valley. Despite increasing clouds,
conditions will remain VFR for at least the next 6-10 hours
before ceilings begin to lower to MVFR heights.

Rain showers are not expected to begin until later in the period
as the aforementioned system tracks slowly north and east
towards the southeast Great Lakes. Showers are generally
expected to overspread the region from southwest to northeast,
impacting the terminals between 8-11z tomorrow morning. Upon
onset, showers are expected to carry through the remainder of
the 18z TAF period, likely causing conditions to worsen to MVFR
thresholds. It is possible that heavier batches of showers
moving over the terminals could worsen conditions to IFR
thresholds, but due to low confidence in that possibility at
this great a lead time, refrained from including this in the 18z
TAFs.

Winds throughout the period will be a bit breezy at times with
sustained speeds ranging from 7-12 kt and gusts at KALB of 15-20
kt. Winds will remain primarily out of a southeast direction.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant