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000
FXUS63 KAPX 211455
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1055 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger Monday.

- Showers and breezy conditions late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures return late week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is on track with approaching weak cold front expected
to slip across the region today with little fanfare except for
some increasing cloudiness. Cool westerly breezes and highs
ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern/Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure extends from the
central plains to the OH Valley. A cold front is dropping across
northern Ontario, nearing far northern Lk Superior. This
boundary makes it into eastern upper MI this afternoon, before
washing out.

Forecast: The low cloud deck has been clearing out from nw to
se. Clouds linger south of a CAD-OSC line, but will continue to
depart early this morning. Otherwise, just some cirrus overhead.
Additional low clouds are over and especially north of Lk
Superior, thanks to some low-level moisture pooling near the
cold front. These will make their way into eastern upper MI by
mid-late morning, with diurnal heating assisting the process of
blossoming cu/stratocu in the coolish but moistening air.
There`s a non-zero chance of a sprinkle of weak shower
(especially late morning to mid-afternoon), but better chances
will be on the Canadian side of the St Marys River. Will keep
pops out of eastern upper MI for today. From midday thru the
afternoon, an area of partly cloudy skies will move gradually
south across northern lower MI, even as eastern upper MI clears
out later in the day.

Highs today from the upper 40s north to upper 50s far se.
Diurnal heating/mixing will promote breezy conditions this
afternoon, and somewhat low RH values (25-35 percent for a min
RH in most spots, lowest near Saginaw Bay). Gave some thought to
adding elevated fire danger for today (already in the HWO for
tomorrow), but will keep the focus on Monday. Marine: small
craft advisories issued for offshore gustiness around eastern
upper and ne lower MI.

Cloud cover will exit south and other diminish tonight, leaving
mostly clear skies. Winds will weaken, and good radiational
cooling will occur, aided by low BL moisture/surface dew points
in place. Lows mainly in the 20s, some around 30 readings for
the nw lower MI coast. Though we haven`t started frost-freeze
products yet, some places may have some vulnerabilities
(orchards). Take precautions as needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Heights will rise on Monday with warming temperatures and dry
conditions. By late Monday night, upper trough and surface low
pressure system will approach the region spreading precipitation
chances. Sfc low will pass through the region from northwest to
southeast on Tuesday, dragging a colder airmass into the region
Tuesday night. Heights will rise as ridging builds into northern
Michigan late week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Southwest sfc flow and deep mixing will promote warm and dry
conditions on Monday, especially for interior northern lower.
Consequently, elevated fire danger can be expected as relative
humidity values drop to around 20-30% most locations and wind gusts
range from the upper 10s to low-mid 20s. No major concerns otherwise.

Lift approaches the region late Monday night into Tuesday in the
form of an upper trough and attendant sfc low pressure/frontal
system. Temperatures will rise into the 60s out ahead of this
system, with a cold front pushing through Tuesday night making for a
cool Wednesday. Expect breezy conditions in addition to
rain/convective showers with this next system as it skirts through
the area. Progged soundings Tuesday afternoon suggest weak skinny
CAPE but lapse rates are quite steep in the low to mid levels (in
addition to relatively dry sub cloud layers). Thus, gusty
thunderstorms will be possible with any of the more robust updrafts
that attempt to manifest (will be worth monitoring the trends in
instability going forward). Cannot rule out a few light snow
showers/mix behind this cooler airmass Tuesday night, but
moisture/lift will decrease rapidly resulting in little impact.

After a cooler Wednesday, temperatures rebound quite nicely to close
out the work week. Ridging aloft will build, thus fostering a quick
rebound in temperatures with values in the 60s by Friday. Mild
temperatures remain into next weekend with active weather possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
VFR. Some cu/stratocu will develop today, especially CIU/PLN,
but restrictions are not expected. Skies clear tonight.

West to northwest winds will be somewhat breezy, especially
this afternoon/evening. Light winds tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ