Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
460 FXUS63 KAPX 280807 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 407 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers again today into tonight with isolated thunderstorms possible. - Rain and isolated thunderstorms Monday. - Active pattern with rain late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Pattern Synopsis: Shortwave troughing will continue to slide east of the Great Lakes today as ridging temporarily folds over the region. Meanwhile, longwave troughing ejecting over the Great Plains early this morning will lift into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A cold front will continue to push south of the CWA today, eventually mixing back north as a warm front late tonight into Monday as a surface cyclone associated with aforementioned troughing progresses across the Upper Midwest. Forecast Details: Showers today/tonight -- Isolated to scattered showers will continue across some parts of northern Michigan through the early morning hours behind the frontal passage, with most places seeing little to no additional measurable rainfall. After this, chances for showers will gradually increase from south to north today -- especially later this afternoon and tonight with enhanced warm, moist advection/isentropic ascent overspreading the Northwoods as the aforementioned system works closer to the region. While not expected, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled our later today and tonight. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are in store today as highs stay in the 50s for most areas this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper low and subsequent sfc low pressure system will lift through the Upper Midwest on Monday spreading showers, in addition to isolated convection, into northern Michigan. Another piece of energy moving across the Upper Midwest and into Ontario Tuesday night into Wednesday will produce generally light rain across the area, favoring northern portions which will be closer to the forcing. Potent trough digs into the center portion of the county late week forcing moisture and the chances for precipitation into northern Michigan late week as it advects northeastward. Primary Forecast Concerns: Warm, moist advection takes place on Monday as sfc low pressure system lifts to the northwest across the Upper Midwest. Consequently, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Another good shot for wetting rains for some. Few thunderstorms possible/will remain Monday afternoon before drier air works into the region Monday night. Another piece of energy will pass off to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally light showers favoring the farther north you go in northern Michigan. Energy enters the center of the CONUS mid-late next week, advecting moisture (PWs ~200% normal) and precipitation into Michigan as it moves northeastward. Guidance all suggest this outcome, just slightly different positioning of the upper feature and thus the subsequent sfc low and steadiest precipitation chances. Sfc low generally tracks near or to the northwest of N MI, thus could be another shot for thunderstorms. Ensembles show low probabilities for >500j/kg CAPEs at this time so just looking like rain with some isolated thunderstorms possible. After this system/frontal boundary passes it looks to turn cooler into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Deep low pressure will continue to lift northeastward thru Ontario and into Quebec overnight. Associated cold front will sweep thru the rest of Northern Lower Michigan overnight. Residual showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish overnight into Sunday morning...before chances of showers and possibly a few storms again increases later Sunday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts into Northern Michigan. Surface winds will shift will then become northerly very late tonight into Sunday morning in the wake of the cold front...and will then become E/NE and strengthen to 15 to 25 kts Sunday afternoon and night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321- 322. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MLR