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000
FXUS63 KAPX 152334
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
734 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Little weather tonight/Tuesday prior to arrival of next system.

- Elevated fire danger Tuesday afternoon inland from Lake Huron.

- Widespread measurable rain and gusty winds likely Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
Split flow across western North America...consolidating again
over the Plains with a low amplitude short wave ridge moving
through central Canada ahead of a short wave trough moving into
British Columbia in the northern branch...with a stronger closed
low in the southern branch over the Four Corners. Cooler/drier
air filtering into the Great Lakes on deep layer northwesterly
flow...with deeper moisture suppressed south of Michigan. Early
afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure over Manitoba
ridging southeast across the Great Lakes...frontal boundary
stretches from the mid Atlantic west along the Ohio
River/southern Illinois/central Missouri. High based Cu in
horizontal rolls across northeast Lower and a band of clouds
(and some high based radar returns) along the southeast Upper
shoreline likely enhanced by the lake breeze.

Height rises associated with upstream short wave ridge will spread
across the Great Lakes tonight as southern branch upper low works
its way into the central Plains.  Surface ridge will remain across
Michigan tonight and then shifts east Tuesday allowing for an
increase in easterly boundary layer flow across northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Little weather tonight/Tuesday prior to arrival of next system: High
pressure at the surface and aloft will allow for one more dry day
Tuesday before rain arrives Tuesday night.  Skies will clear this
evening with some increase in mid/high clouds on Tuesday...another
afternoon of mostly above normal highs especially northwest Lower
where downsloping east winds will help (cooler near the Lake Huron
shoreline).  East winds will increase during the day with gusts 15
to 25 mph west of I-75 in the afternoon.

Elevated fire danger Tuesday afternoon inland from Lake Huron:
Increasing east winds and dew points falling into the 20s expected
to result in relative humidity values below 30% during the afternoon
away from the moderating influence of easterly winds off Lake Huron.
Combined with lowering fuel moisture fire danger will increase
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Late Tuesday night a stacked
system will approach MI/WI. East winds near the surface will
strengthen and become breezy to gusty overnight while rain
chances spread over northern MI. Wednesday morning east to
southeast winds will be gusty with intermittent light to
moderate rain over the state. A few model soundings hint at a
few hundred J/kg of elevated instability (on top of a warm
nose). A few rumbles of thunder could be embedded within
stratiform rain Wednesday morning, however the center of the low
approaches northern WI during the afternoon and moves a cold
front over the CWA from SW to NE. This could provide the lift
needed to tap into that elevated instability along the front.
Some CAMs that initially capture Wednesday are hinting at a
broken line of minor convection moving through northern lower.
This could aid in mixing down gusty winds to the surface,
produce some lightning, and possibly localized and brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Winds turn west and diminish
overnight into Thursday morning.

Cooler temperatures and breezy afternoons for the end of the work
week, with slight chances for a quick burst of snow showers Friday
over eastern upper and the tip of the mitt. A broad upper level low
will move over Ontario CA and keep temperatures around 5 to 15
degrees below normal for next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: The main focus for this
period falls mostly on Wednesday with our next system. There is
fairly high confidence in the track of the low up until it reaches
MN/WI, then there is a spread of where it could land. Some ensemble
members take the track up to northern WI and some over eastern MI.
CAMS are just starting to trickle in, and hint at the track some
where in the middle. No matter the detail of the exact track, this
range will result in some kind of rain and breezy to gusty winds for
northern MI (especailly northern lower). PW values at the moment are
around 0.8-1" which is at or even slightly over the 90th percentile
for mid April. This is sufficient for a widespread soak, with exact
amounts still up in the air. The surface pressure gradient will
tighten Wednesday (around 8 to 13 mb gradient over northern lower),
however the stronger winds aloft (~850mb) will be early Wednesday.
This could result in gusty winds early Wednesday morning, and
strengthening sustained winds with more mild gusts through the
afternoon hours. Its too early for exact amounts, however at this
time there is a lower chance for this system`s winds to be as strong
as last weeks system. We will be watching this.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

VFR.

Relatively dry air remains in place into Tuesday, as high
pressure passes well to our north. There will be some
increase in cloud cover Tuesday, especially late. VFR expected.

Nnw winds will weaken this evening. An east breeze develops
Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ