Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

000
FNUS53 KAPX 250731
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...Critical RHs anticipated again today...

.DISCUSSION...Critical RHs are anticipated again later today across a good portion
of northern lower Michigan. Far easternmost counties including
Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, and Arenac may struggle to reach critical RHs
-- and will likely remain in the 30-40 percent range near the
lakeshores. Otherwise, RHs in the 20-25 percent range are expected
for most interior areas for a time this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Light/calm winds are in store today as well, allowing
for lake breezes to push inland from all lakeshores beginning early
this afternoon. These lake breezes should gradually work all the way
inland into central northern lower by later this evening. After
these lake breezes pass, RHs are expected to rise above near-
critical thresholds shortly behind with winds coming from the
direction of the lakeshore with speeds around 5-10 mph. Otherwise,
warmer temps will be in place today with highs in the low to mid
50s. Light winds and fuel moisture levels preclude elevated fire
danger today at this time. However, Friday looks to be the most
concerning fire weather day this week with gustier southeast winds
and drier fuels expected. Rain and thunder chances return Friday
night and Saturday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-252030-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....52-57...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (321).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........70-75 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........17-22 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (929).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-252030-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....51-56...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (354).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....28-33...except 35-40 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (725).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-252030-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (332).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the north in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........70-75 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 16 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (966).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-252030-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (384).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the east in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Min Temperature.....31-36.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........72-77 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 22 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........17-22 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1059).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-252030-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (387).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....27-32.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........22-27 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (996).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

DJC