Text Products for FWS Issued by APX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS73 KAPX 151659
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Warbler 6...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1259 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Dry weather is expected during the day Tuesday with rain
chances increasing Tuesday night/Wednesday.  Winds will shift to the
east for Tuesday and continue Wednesday with gusts over 30mph expected.
Prior to the rain moving in relative humidity values are expected to
drop below 30 percent Tuesday afternoon.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2400 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (81.0-454.0).

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  41  48  55  61  68  67  65  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  46  51  53  55  57  59  59  58
RH..............69  53  44  41  36  34  32  31  32
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   9   9   9   12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.12  12  12  14  14  14  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.5 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.0
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   8   9   9   9   9   10  13  15
Vrate kt-ft.....81  120 220 263 301 337 392 441 454
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Rain showers
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........89 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 9 to 18 mph.
Transport winds.....East 16 to 23 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-2500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (221.0-413.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68  73  66  74  82  90  91  92  93  92  91  90
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  53  49  47  45  43  42  42  42  41  40  39
RH..............33  37  37  40  43  47  50  53  57  65  70  79
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  16  16  16  20  20  20  22  22  22
20 ft wind gust.18  18  18  24  24  24  29  29  29  31  31  31
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  18  20  20  20  21  21  22  22  23
Vrate kt-ft.....413 341 270 235 221 223 226 239 258 279 301 317
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........70 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 15 to 18 mph.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 23 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-1600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (225.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     91     90     90     92     90
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............39     39     41     44     47     49
RH..............82     89     92     89     83     83
20 ft wind dir..E      E      E      E      E      E
20 ft wind spd..22     22     22     20     20     18
20 ft wind gust.32     32     31     29     29     28
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1400   1400   1600   1600   1300
Haines index....5      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..E 23   E 23   E 23   E 23   E 22   E 21
Vrate kt-ft.....321    316    332    355    356    269
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...JPB
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410948.0/APX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
