Text Products for FWS Issued by APX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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000
FNUS73 KAPX 131604
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Warbler 6...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1204 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...After a round of rain tonight at the burn location,
expect rain-free conditions at the time of ignition on Sunday.
West/southwest winds will be veering to northwest during the burn
period, with wind gusts nearing or even exceeding critical levels
at times...especially during the late morning and afternoon. Low
level moisture will steadily mix out through the day, with
relative humidity values dropping to near 45 percent during the
afternoon. It is possible locally lower readings will occur.

Rain-free weather will continue through Monday night. Good rh
recovery expected at the burn location Sunday night, with more
aggressive mixing of low level moisture on Monday...dropping rh
values to sub 40 percent values during the afternoon. Northwest
winds will continue on Monday, again a bit gusty at times.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........45 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest
                    9 to 12 mph late in the morning.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 18
                    to 24 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......900-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3500-4800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (117.0-490.0) increasing to good
                    to very good (767.0-1148.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  67  67  60  52  45  39  33  28
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  51  55  60  63  64  64  64  62
RH..............91  79  71  60  53  48  46  45  46
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  14  14  14  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.17  17  17  22  22  22  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.14  17  18  20  22  24  24  23  21
Vrate kt-ft.....117 219 319 490 767 105111481082914
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  VGD VGD VGD GD

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........94 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3700 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (208.0-696.0) decreasing to poor
                    (41.0) in the late evening and overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........22  16  22  16  11  5   6   6   7   7   7   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  57  53  51  48  46  43  41  40  38  37  36
RH..............48  54  58  64  68  75  78  84  86  88  92  91
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..13  13  13  8   8   8   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.20  20  20  14  14  14  9   9   9   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  17  15  14  13  12  12  10  10  10  9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....696 464 290 208 164 139 113 95  81  63  49  41
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........35 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming west 5 to 10 mph early in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph increasing to 17 to 18
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1800 ft AGL increasing to 6000-6900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (11.0-438.0) increasing to very
                    good (1040.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........8      9      10     16     25     18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............36     37     48     57     61     63
RH..............94     87     64     47     37     35
20 ft wind dir..W      W      W      W      W      NW
20 ft wind spd..6      6      10     13     13     13
20 ft wind gust.8      8      14     20     20     21
Mix hgt (ft)....200    500    3500   6000   6800   6700
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..NW 8   NW 8   NW 13  NW 16  NW 18  NW 18
Vrate kt-ft.....17     43     438    994    1253   1232
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD

$$
Forecaster...MSB
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410619.0/APX
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
